Technical Update - Nasdaq 100 ticking higher. S&P 500 range bound. Down trending Russell 2000 with spread to big cap Indices increasing Technical Update - Nasdaq 100 ticking higher. S&P 500 range bound. Down trending Russell 2000 with spread to big cap Indices increasing Technical Update - Nasdaq 100 ticking higher. S&P 500 range bound. Down trending Russell 2000 with spread to big cap Indices increasing

Technical Update - Nasdaq 100 ticking higher. S&P 500 range bound. Down trending Russell 2000 with spread to big cap Indices increasing

Equities 4 minutes to read
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank

Summary:  Nasdaq 100 uptrend ticking higher despite weakening strength, lifted by Big Techs
S&P 500 almost flatlined and needs break out from range for direction
Russell 2000 could be testing 1,700 key support. Spread versus S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 increasing
It is primarily the Big Cap companies such as Apple, Meta, Amazon and Microsoft keeping the market afloat pushing the Nasdaq 100 higher.

Nasdaq 100 is slowly crawling higher towards strong resistance at around 13,700. Whether the Index will actually reach that level is debatable.
RSI is positive but with divergence, the Strength Indicator is not supporting the higher Index levels, but the trend is your friend (unless it is about to end)

First sign of the uptrend is about to end would be a bearish break of the lower rising trendline. If combined with RSI closing below its rising trendline the signal would be even stronger.
To confirm the short-term uptrend has reversed a close below 12,938 is needed.

Source all charts and data: Saxo Group

S&P 500 is almost flatlined lately. Range the Index needs to break out of for direction is still 4,195 and 4,050.
A close above 4,195 would cancel the Gravestone Doji Top and Reversal pattern and pave the way to 4,300. Close below 4,050 there is support at 4K and 3,910

RSI is moving below its falling trend line. A close above would be an indication of the upper Index range to be tested.

Russell 2000 small cap Index is the weakest of the main US Indices. Rejected at the upper falling trendline Russell could be set for a re-test of support at around 1,700. A close below is likely to push the Index to 1,650.
RSI is still showing negative sentiment and a close below 40 threshold will further add to the bearish picture for Russell. 

Spread Russell 2000 vs Nasdaq and S&P 500 expanding
From the below chart we can see how the Spread between S&P 500 and Russel 2000 and the spread between Nasdaq 100 and Russel 2000 has been developing

From 2021 to 2022 the Spread was expanding between Russell 2000 vs. the two other indices with Russell outperforming the other two Indices.
After the Markets peaked in Q4 2021 Nasdaq 100 has outperformed.

The spread between Russell 2000 and S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 decreased until Q4 2022, were Russell started struggling to keep up with the bounce in S&P 500 and especially Nasdaq This is  resulting in the spreads again to expand.

Money is flowing out of small and mid-caps. One of the reasons is of course that the struggling banking sector has more weight in Russell 2000 Index than in S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100.

However, as mentioned in previous Technical updates Russell 2000 outlook is bleak. Similarities to 2007-2008 is described here: Russell 2000 drawing 2007 pattern

Author is holding a short position in Russell 2000 

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
- Full disclaimer (
- Full disclaimer (

Boulevard Plaza, Tower 1, 30th floor, office 3002
Downtown, P.O. Box 33641 Dubai, UAE

Contact Saxo

Select region


Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

Saxo Bank A/S is licensed by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority and operates in the UAE under a representative office license issued by the Central bank of the UAE.

The content and material made available on this website and the linked sites are provided by Saxo Bank A/S. It is the sole responsibility of the recipient to ascertain the terms of and comply with any local laws or regulation to which they are subject.

The UAE Representative Office of Saxo Bank A/S markets the Saxo Bank A/S trading platform and the products offered by Saxo Bank A/S.