Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: FTSE 100/UK100 cfd hitting resistance, correction looming. FTSE 250/UK250MID cfd could resume down trend
FTSE 100 seems to be stalling at resistance at around 7,947 indicating a correction could be seen.
A correction is however, likely to be limited and brief. The 55 daily Moving Average coming up providing some support around 7,800 but also the rising 21 and 100 Moving Averages will add to the support. The rising Moving Averages indicate an underlying bullish sentiment.
However, a correction down to the 0.382 retracement at around 7,657 should not be ruled out before buyers would like to regain control.
If FTSE 100 can manage to close above 7,947 uptrend is likely to be extended to test all-time high at around 8,047.
However, if that scenario plays out there could be further upside in stock for FTSE 100
UK100 cfd: Resistance at 7,975. A correction down to 7,764 possibly a dip to the 0.382 retracement at 7,656.
FTSE 250 upwards correction could have come to an end. 55 daily Moving Average is about to move below the 100 Moving Average which is declining and that is a sign of underlying bearish trend.
RSI has failed to close above 60 threshold. A close below 19,076 and below 200 Moving Average will confirm FTSE 250 is resuming the bearish trend.
For FTSE 250 to turn the correction in to an actual uptrend an Index close above 19,396 and an RSI close above 60 are required.
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Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.