Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
DAX/GER40 has broken above its very short-term falling trendline but is still below key resistance at around 16,060
RSI is still showing negative sentiment on RSI, and with the 55 and 100 Moving Average slightly declining the underlying trend sentiment is bearish.
If DAX is closing above 16,060 a move to July peak around 16,500 is likely.
It can be a struggle however, with the two Moving Average acting as a ceiling. It could be a struggle for DAX to penetrate.
If closing below key support at around 15,482 there is downside risk to around 15K.
BEL20/BELG20 has broken above resistance at around 3,696 and seems to be building a bullish trend. However, BEL20 is still below 200 Moving Average and more importantly RSI hasn’t closed above 60 threshold just yet which is needed for uptrend confirmation.
If RWSI does close above 60 there is BEL20 upside potential to 3,825-3,850
A close below 3,630 and BEL has reversed to downtrend. First indication of that scenario to play out would be if RSI is failing to close above 60 followed by the Index closing back below 3,696
CAC40/FRA40 Index jumped higher this morning and is currently trading above resistance at around 7,405. A close above and an RSI close above 60 will confirm bullish trend in CAC40
An uptrend that will have potential up to test July peak at around 7,526, possibly higher.
If CAC40 is sliding back below 7,405 the bullish picture is in jeopardy SMI20/SWISS20 closed yesterday above its upper falling trendline in the triangle like pattern.
If SMI 20 is closing above resistance at around 11,173 the Index is likely to move higher towards July peak at around 11,400, but further upside could be seen.
Bond. Long Bond(s)
With real rates being too positive, we see three scenarios: Opportunity to lock in rates at cycle high, government overreach to keep the economy afloat or a complete reset of the economy.
Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
Is a bond bull market ahead? Inflation still poses a risk for investors, but the moment for increasing duration to your portfolio may be approaching towards the end of the year, when central banks might be forced to cut interest rates.
Althea Spinozzi,
Senior Fixed Income Strategist
The furious rate hike cycle has brought gains in the US dollar, but with stagflation risks in Europe and the UK and weakness in the Chinese economy, USD may have more room to run. But a strong dollar could also have repercussions for US growth, emerging markets and commodity prices.
Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
With the cost of capital rising painfully, stagflation fears are back, illuminating the fragile state of the green transformation, while giving a tailwind to nuclear power, and threatening the growth of AI-related stocks.
Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
With supply tightness not only in energy but all commodities, the momentum in commodity prices may continue, pressuring central banks to lower real rates. That could be a good setup for precious metals, including gold, silver and potentially platinum as well.
Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
As the pandemic showed, even the US Treasury can experience seismic shifts. With the government increasing the pace of issuing bonds to support fiscal spending, the complex Treasury market and regulatory constraints could spark a liquidity event.
Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
The tide has turned for bonds. Given the current yields, bonds have become an attractive investment, with added benefits including lower risk than stocks, increased diversification and a steady stream of income unaffected by economic changes.
Peter Siks,
Investment Coach