Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
AEX25/NETH25 cfd trading below key support at 781 and could sell-off down to around 765, the upper level of the support area 765-759.
The rising 55 and 200 DMA’s are adding to the support strength around these levels.
If AEX is closing back above 781 and RSI above 60 threshold there is great likelihood uptrend will resume.
A close above 793 will confirm bullish trend with likely new higher high above December peak at 798.
An RSI close above its falling trend line could be first indication the bullish scenario it to play out
BEL20/BELG20 cfd is trading in its rising channel pattern i.e., in a bullish trend. Minor resistance at around 3,741. A close above BEL20 is likely to move higher to 3,823-3,849
A close below lower rising trendline BEL20 could be hit by sell-off down to 3,632-3,575
CAC40/FRA40 cfd After several times spiking below the key support at 7,405 the Index has managed to close above every single time. A close below is likely to fuel a sell-off down 7,307-7,204 support.
For CAC40/FRA40 to resume uptrend minimum requirement is a close back above 7,526.
If that occurs CAC40/FRA40 could push higher to test previous peak at around 7,652
RSI is still in positive sentiment with no divergence supporting higher Index levels
SMI20/SWISS 20 cfd Hovering around its rising trendline key support at 11,067. 200 DMA is adding to the support strength around that level.
A close above 11,068 next resistance is at around 11,245
To reverse the uptrend a close below 10,720
There is divergence on RSI indicating trend exhaustion. However, if SMI20/SWISS20 is closing above 11,292 a move to 11,437 would be in the cards.
A close below 11,067 could fuel a sell-off down toa round 10,900