Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
FTSE 100 bounced from key support at around 6,788. Short-term there is divergence on RSI indicating the bounce could move, higher possibly to 7,250. First indication of that scenario to play out could be RSI breaking above its upper falling trendline.
However, the medium-term trend is down (see weekly chart) and if key support at 6,788 is taken out FTSE could drop to the strong support area at 6,484-6,397.
Weekly RSI below 40 supports the bearish outlook.
FTSE 250 Mid Cap Index reached and the 1.764 projection of the September sell-off before rebounding from key support at 16,707
FTSE250 has now retraced 0.618 of the entire uptrend since 2020 trough.
Weekly RSI shows divergence but if the Mid Cap Index drops below last week’s low at 16,650 a sell-off down to next support at around 15,194 is likely.
Short term if FTSE250 breaks above 17,823 the bounce could extend to 18,288-18,428.
For FTSE 250 to reverse this bear trend a close above 19,615 is minimum requirement.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.