Earnings Watch: Machines, ecosystem, and GLP-1 demand Earnings Watch: Machines, ecosystem, and GLP-1 demand Earnings Watch: Machines, ecosystem, and GLP-1 demand

Earnings Watch: Machines, ecosystem, and GLP-1 demand

Equities 5 minutes to read
Peter Garnry

Head of Saxo Strats

Summary:  Important earnings week ahead with several hundred of large cap earnings on tap with the three most important earnings releases being Caterpillar (tomorrow), Apple (Thursday) and Novo Nordisk (Thursday). The Q3 earnings season has been acceptable so far with the Nasdaq 100 Index being the clear winner with operating income up 7% from a year ago getting to a new all-time high.

Key points in this equity note:

  • Over 300 large companies are reporting earnings this week making it an important week for the equity market.

  • The three most important earnings releases are Caterpillar (tomorrow), Apple (Thursday) and Novo Nordisk (Thursday)

  • The Q3 earnings season has been acceptable so far with the Nasdaq 100 Index being the clear winner with operating income up 7% from a year ago getting to a new all-time high.

Caterpillar’s growth is expected to soften

Caterpillar is set to report Q3 earnings tomorrow at 10:30 GMT with analysts expecting revenue growth of 6.7% y/y, down from 21% revenue growth a year ago, and EBITDA $3.6bn up from $3bn a year ago as the global construction industry is still doing well despite higher interest rates. The key focus point for investors is order intake and whether the backlog might have peaked for now as the effects of higher interest rates will finally begin to weigh on construction activity across properties, energy and mining. Caterpillar is usually quite transparent about growth in China and given the government’s efforts to ignite growth in China the reading from Caterpillar should be watched by investors.

Apple and Microsoft are diving the world between them

The original competitors back in the 1980s when the nascent personal computer industry took off are still around and stronger than ever. It seems the massive digitalization over the past two decades has created two giants with Apple dominating the digital consumer market and Microsoft is dominating the digital enterprise market. Maybe among the greatest monopolies of all time.

Apple is set to report earnings FY23 Q4 (ending 30 Sep) earnings on Thursday (aft-mkt) with analysts expecting revenue growth of -1% y/y, down from 8% y/y revenue growth a year ago, and EBITDA $29.7bn up from $27.8bn a year ago driven by Apple strong ecosystem and pricing power (recently seen with a steep price increase on Apple TV). One key focus point from investors is whether Apple will confirm what Microsoft and Intel have confirmed, that the consumer electronics market is turning a corner for the better as consumers have now absorbed the initial inflation shock. A concern from investors is Apple’s large exposure to China, through 19% of revenue coming from China and the company assembling the majority of its devices in China. Recently Chinese authorities have opened up an investigation of Apple’s main contract manufacturer Foxconn

Novo Nordisk is set to report crazy GLP-1 outlook

The new class of GLP-1 obesity drugs have shocked the world in their performance on obesity, and recently also heart disease and kidney risks, and sent demand skyrocketing. Novo Nordisk is currently the first-mover with its Wegovy drug, with Eli Lilly soon expected to get approval for its drugs and launch incredible growth. Novo Nordisk is expected to report Q3 earnings on Thursday at 06:30 GTM with analysts expecting revenue growth of 27% y/y and EBITDA of DKK 27bn vs DKK 22.2bn a year ago.

The only focus for investors is the obesity care segment which has grown from a DKK 1.2bn business (3.6% of total revenue) in Q3 2018 to now five years later a DKK 10.3bn business (19% of total revenue) in Q2 2023. The growth rate in obesity care was 183% y/y in Q2 and will no doubt post another +100% y/y figure as demand is skyrocketing for these new obesity care drugs. Investors will look for any updates on whether the many benefits of these GLP-1 drugs mean that they will be adopted nationally as key for lowering costs in the health care system.

Key earnings releases this week

The Q3 earnings season has so far been acceptable to investors with operating profits more or less unchanged in S&P 500 and STOXX 600 compared to Q2 in a sign that the global economy is still delivering a backdrop that is supportive for earnings growth. The big winner in Q3 earnings has been the Nasdaq 100 Index that has seen operating income rise by 7% over the past year as US technology companies have trimmed costs and reduced plans in capital expenditures. Nasdaq 100 operating income is now close to a new all-time high.

The list below shows the most important earnings releases this week besides the three important earnings mentioned above.

  • Monday: McDonald’s, Pinterest

  • Tuesday: Anheuser-Busch InBev, BP, Caterpillar, AMD, Pfizer, Amgen, Eaton, Cameco, BASF, Uniper, BP, BBVA, First Solar

  • Wednesday: Toyota, Mondelez, Qualcomm, Airbnb, CVS Health, Nutrien, Orsted, GSK, MercadoLibre, PayPal, Estee Lauder, DoorDash

  • Thursday: Apple, Novo Nordisk, Cigna, S&P Global, Booking, Stryker, Eli Lilly, Shell, ConocoPhillips, Starbucks, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Shopify, ING Groep, Ferrari, Fortinet, Palantir, Block, Cloudflare, Coinbase

  • Friday: Enbridge, Maersk, Societe Generale, BMW, Vonovia, Intesa Sanpaolo

  • Saturday: Berkshire Hathaway

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-mena/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

Boulevard Plaza, Tower 1, 30th floor, office 3002
Downtown, P.O. Box 33641 Dubai, UAE

Contact Saxo

Select region


Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

Saxo Bank A/S is licensed by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority and operates in the UAE under a representative office license issued by the Central bank of the UAE.

The content and material made available on this website and the linked sites are provided by Saxo Bank A/S. It is the sole responsibility of the recipient to ascertain the terms of and comply with any local laws or regulation to which they are subject.

The UAE Representative Office of Saxo Bank A/S markets the Saxo Bank A/S trading platform and the products offered by Saxo Bank A/S.