Crypto Weekly: Unfamiliar territory Crypto Weekly: Unfamiliar territory Crypto Weekly: Unfamiliar territory

Crypto Weekly: Unfamiliar territory

Mads Eberhardt

Cryptocurrency Analyst

Summary:  Based on historical and statistical data, this bear market is arguably the worst in the history of crypto. Several of the global conditions are new for the crypto market, and cryptos have to maneuver in uncharted territory. Additionally, BlockFi’s shareholders are likely to get fully diluted if the firm accepts a $250mn bailout from FTX, whereas depositors are likely made whole.

Trading below previous all-time highs

Bitcoin and Ethereum reached all-time highs in November last year of $69,000 and $4,850, respectively. Quickly thereafter, fatigue spread across the crypto market leading to a present 6-months period of tumbling prices. At present, Bitcoin trades at 21,150 (BTCUSD) and Ethereum changes hands at 1,210 (ETHUSD) from a low of $17,550 and $880 earlier this month. Thought-provoking, these lows are below the all-time highs of the infamous market cycle of 2017 and 2018 of around $19,800 and $1,400. It is the first time that fatigue leads to lower prices than in a former market cycle, meaning we are entering territory with no similar history. According to Glassnode, the Mayer Multiple (MM) of both Bitcoin and Ethereum is historically low. Based on a 200-day simple moving average as a long-term mean, the Mayer Multiple tracks price deviations above and below this level. For the first time, Bitcoin has recorded a lower MM (0.487) compared to the previous cycle's low of 0.511 in 2018. Out of Bitcoin’s 4,160 trading days, only 84 days have closed with a MM below 0.5. Ethereum’s MM value has recently been as low as 0.37. Considering all Ethereum’s trading days, only 1.4% of these had a MM value below 0.37. Alongside other price metrics and on-chain data, Glassnode largely concludes that this bear market is so far the most significant in crypto’s history.

As we see it, one should be careful about perceiving that it cannot get much worse, because this bear already beats prior bear markets. At this moment, the crypto market is surrounded by conditions it has never dealt with, such as high global inflation, increasing interest rates, global unrest, and possibly a recession on the horizon. Moreover, stressed by the fatigue in particularly growth stocks, investors have arguably reassessed their overall risk sentiment to a degree that crypto has not experienced in prior cycles. Strictly speaking, if investors continue to seek risk-off, it is not unthinkable that crypto is an asset class to be further liquidated by particularly retail investors.

FTX bails out BlockFi, Goldman Sachs looking at buying Celsius assets

One of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges FTX has announced its intention to bail out troubled crypto-lender BlockFi. Similar to another crypto-lender Celsius, BlockFi has allegedly been short on liquidity to comply with its liabilities to its clients. FTX has offered BlockFi a $250mn credit facility offer, which might be enough to get the firm back on the straight and narrow. FTX’s offer is structured in a way in which depositors are to be repaid before FTX in case BlockFi becomes insolvent. However, the offer consists of an option for FTX to acquire BlockFi at “essentially zero cost”, effectively fully diluting existing shareholders. Raising money with a valuation as high as $5bn last year, many existing shareholders are not pleased by this fact, so the offer by FTX has not been signed yet.

Speaking of Celsius, Goldman Sachs is reportedly looking to raise $2bn from investors to acquire Celsius’ assets in case the lender files for bankruptcy. The investment bank should be interested in the assets at a hefty discount. For now, Celsius has halted withdrawals without any news on the outlook of the firm.

Bitcoin/USD - Source: Saxo Group
Ethereum/USD - Source: Saxo Group

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 05

  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
- Full disclaimer (
- Full disclaimer (

Business Hills Park – Building 4,
4th Floor, office 401, Dubai Hills Estate, P.O. Box 33641, Dubai, UAE

Contact Saxo

Select region


Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

Saxo Bank A/S is licensed by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority and operates in the UAE under a representative office license issued by the Central bank of the UAE.

The content and material made available on this website and the linked sites are provided by Saxo Bank A/S. It is the sole responsibility of the recipient to ascertain the terms of and comply with any local laws or regulation to which they are subject.

The UAE Representative Office of Saxo Bank A/S markets the Saxo Bank A/S trading platform and the products offered by Saxo Bank A/S.