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Technical Update - WTI and Brent Crude oil trying to build uptrends. Henry Hub gas crawling higher with Dutch gas struggling

Commodities 4 minutes to read
KCL
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank

Summary:  WTI and Brent crude oil bouncing from retracement level. Can the establish bullish trend or be failing once again?
Henry Hub gas established uptrend, but it is fragile with Indicator not confirming. Will It slide back?
Dutch Gas bouncing from strong support but strong resistances overhead

WTI Crude oil bounced off the 0.786 retracement at 69.52 and currently testing the 0.618 retracement, close to testing the upper falling trendline. If that scenario plays out followed by a close above 76.18 an uptrend has been confirmed with a likely move to 1.382 projection at 78.81, possibly spiking up to test the strong resistance at around 79.11

An RSI close above 60 will confirm a bullish scenario

If WTI is failing to confirm uptrend and instead sliding back below 69.29 bearish trend is resuming
Source all charts and data: Saxo Group

Brent Crude oil retraced almost 0.786 of the late December bullish move. Currently testing the 0.618 retracement the upper falling trendline could very well be tested.
A break above is likely leading to a move to December peak at around 81.72. A close above is likely to push Brent to the 1.382 projection at around 81.30

An RSI close above 60 will confirm a bullish scenario

If Brent is sliding back taking out 74.81 selling pressure is likely resuming pushing Brent to test 72 once again

Dutch TTF Gas has bounced off support at around 30.50. However, whether the Gas contract can establish a bullish trend is still up in the air. Minimum requirement is for Dutch Gas to close above 37.60.

A break above the upper falling trendline would be first indication of the strong resistance at 37.60 is to be tested
A daily close above 37.60 is likely to push the Gas price higher towards 40.25 possibly spiking to around 43.

If Dutch gas breaks back below 30.50 a sell-off down to around 22.85 is in the cards

Henry Hub Gas is currently testing the 0.382 retracement of the October-November sell-off at 2.77. An uptrend has been established and if RSI is also closing above 60 threshold it will further be confirmed with likely higher gas prices to follow.
Next strong resistance at around 2.95.

The declining 55 and 100 DMA’s will add to the overhead resistance.

If Henry Hub gas is failing is failing to close above 2.77 combined with RSI failing to close above 60 the gas contract is likely to slide back to the 2.50 area. A close below 2.41 bear trend is resuming 

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