Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: WTI and Brent crude oil bouncing from retracement level. Can the establish bullish trend or be failing once again?
Henry Hub gas established uptrend, but it is fragile with Indicator not confirming. Will It slide back?
Dutch Gas bouncing from strong support but strong resistances overhead
WTI Crude oil bounced off the 0.786 retracement at 69.52 and currently testing the 0.618 retracement, close to testing the upper falling trendline. If that scenario plays out followed by a close above 76.18 an uptrend has been confirmed with a likely move to 1.382 projection at 78.81, possibly spiking up to test the strong resistance at around 79.11
An RSI close above 60 will confirm a bullish scenario
Brent Crude oil retraced almost 0.786 of the late December bullish move. Currently testing the 0.618 retracement the upper falling trendline could very well be tested.
A break above is likely leading to a move to December peak at around 81.72. A close above is likely to push Brent to the 1.382 projection at around 81.30
An RSI close above 60 will confirm a bullish scenario
If Brent is sliding back taking out 74.81 selling pressure is likely resuming pushing Brent to test 72 once again
Dutch TTF Gas has bounced off support at around 30.50. However, whether the Gas contract can establish a bullish trend is still up in the air. Minimum requirement is for Dutch Gas to close above 37.60.
A break above the upper falling trendline would be first indication of the strong resistance at 37.60 is to be tested
A daily close above 37.60 is likely to push the Gas price higher towards 40.25 possibly spiking to around 43.
If Dutch gas breaks back below 30.50 a sell-off down to around 22.85 is in the cards
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Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Uncover the shifting focus in 2024's FX markets towards growth resilience and relativity, away from bond yields and inflation stories.
Embrace the metal revolution on the commodity market in the coming year, with a focus on gold, silver, platinum, copper, and aluminum.
The gloominess of geopolitical conflicts and the repetitive nature of political agendas. What else does 2024 hold in store for us?
The disheartening cycle of unresolved geopolitical conflicts, the rise of polarizing political parties, and the stagnation of productivity.
Understand China's political landscape in Q4 2023 and the impact on counter-cyclical initiatives, with a focus on the pivotal Q1 2024.