COT: Speculators cut longs in oil and gold; Record copper short COT: Speculators cut longs in oil and gold; Record copper short COT: Speculators cut longs in oil and gold; Record copper short

COT: Speculators cut longs in oil and gold; Record copper short

Commodities 5 minutes to read
Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Summary:  The weekly Commitments of Traders (CoT) reports covering the week to July 9. The summary below highlights the major changes that occurred in commodities, forex, bonds and stocks. Please find the attached PDF’s for additional information.

Saxo Bank publishes two weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in commodities, bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial.

To download your copy of the Commitment of Traders: Commodity report for the week ending July 9, click here

To download your copy of the Commitment of Traders: Forex report for the week ending July 9, click here.

To download your copy of the Commitment of Traders: Financials report for the week ending July 9, click here.


Speculators sold crude oil, albeit in small quantities, on global demand worries before the market rallied strongly on another large stock draw, geopolitical concerns and not least the potentially damaging impact of tropical storm Barry. Gold was sold for the first time in seven weeks following the stronger-than-expected US job report but before Fed chair Powell in testimonies on Capitol Hill left the door wide open for a July 31st rate cut. The 10% reduction was led by long-liquidation but also some fresh short selling was seen.

HG copper’s renewed and subsequent failed attempt to break key support at $2.60/lb. helped drive a 26% increase in the net-short to 56k lots, a fresh record. One for the radar next week, should the price action continue to move against those positioned for lower prices.
In the agriculture space, grains were mixed ahead of Thursdays WASDE report for July which helped drive wheat and corn prices higher. Drought in Russia and parts of Europe have reduced the outlook for global wheat stocks. while Bloomberg reports that sudden weather shift in the U.S. Midwest toward hot temperatures and dry conditions could hurt corn yields further. Funds holding a record cotton short of 42k lots may breathe a sigh of relief on speculation that the crop damage from Tropical Storm Barry in the southern parts of the Mississippi Delta may be limited. Speculators cut their Arabica coffee net-short by 52% to lowest in almost two years before the price slumped by the most since March, after freeze concerns eased in Brazil.

Speculators kept an almost unchanged dollar exposure against ten IMM currency futures last week. The stronger-than-expected US job report on July 5 helped trigger renewed selling EUR and JPY while GBP continued to be sold on multiple political uncertainties.

Buying of CAD continued with the net-long reaching a March 2018 high while short bets on AUD and NZD were reduced. The Mexican Peso (+18k lots to 126k) remains the only significant long against the dollar as the hunger for carry supported higher-yielding EM currencies.
What is the Commitments of Traders report?

The Commitments of Traders (COT) report is issued by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) every Friday at 15:30 EST with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. The report breaks down the open interest across major futures markets from bonds, stock index, currencies and commodities. The ICE Futures Europe Exchange issues a similar report, also on Fridays, covering Brent crude oil and gas oil.

In commodities, the open interest is broken into the following categories:
Producer/Merchant/Processor/User; Swap Dealers; Managed Money and other.

In financials, the categories are Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Managed Money and other.

Our focus is primarily on the behaviour of Managed Money traders such as commodity trading advisors (CTA), commodity pool operators (CPO), and unregistered funds.

They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged. This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments. It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming.

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 05

  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article

Business Hills Park – Building 4,
4th Floor, office 401, Dubai Hills Estate, P.O. Box 33641, Dubai, UAE

Contact Saxo

Select region


Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

Saxo Bank A/S is licensed by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority and operates in the UAE under a representative office license issued by the Central bank of the UAE.

The content and material made available on this website and the linked sites are provided by Saxo Bank A/S. It is the sole responsibility of the recipient to ascertain the terms of and comply with any local laws or regulation to which they are subject.

The UAE Representative Office of Saxo Bank A/S markets the Saxo Bank A/S trading platform and the products offered by Saxo Bank A/S.