Head of Commodity Strategy
Summary: Hedge funds continued to cut exposure across 24 major commodity futures in the week to March 10. Deleveraging was the main theme with both long and short positions being reduced. The week captured the Saudi-led collapse in crude oil and changes in gold ahead of Thursday's "Dash for cash" which sparked a major correction.
Saxo Bank publishes two weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in commodities, bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial.
The below summary highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across 24 major commodity futures up until last Tuesday, March 10. During this time crude oil slumped by 28% while the dollar was sold and bond yields collapsed. The reporting period does not include the record panic deleveraging that culminated last Thursday when the rare “Dash for cash” phenomenon left no market untouched. Whether it being equities, corporate bonds of any stripe, government long bonds, or even gold which ended down 8.6% on the week, its worst since 1983.
Hedge funds cut bullish commodity bets by a modest 14% to 441k lots during the reporting week. Deleveraging however was the overriding theme with both long and short positions being reduced. The biggest long reductions were seen in crude oil, gold, sugar, cocoa and cotton while short-covering was seen in natural gas, soybeans and corn.
The biggest crude oil collapse in a generation was captured in last week's data. The double blow of failed OPEC+ talks to cut production leading to a war for market share drove crude oil down by 28% during the reporting week. The biggest trigger was the announcement by Saudi Arabia that they would cut its April selling prices by up to 8 dollars/barrel. The sudden availability of oil at close to $25/barrel quickly filled up the order book with Aramco saying they would deliver a record 12.3 million barrels/day next month.
The fact that the biggest discount was offered to European refineries was a clear signal that Saudi Arabia wanted to send a strong signal to Russia who refused to back a Saudi proposal to cut production further. All eyes are now on US shale oil producers and their ability to maintain production amid a collapse in market cap as the price of oil for some moves below their breakevens.
As a result of these developments the combined net-long in WTI (+17.5k lots) and Brent (-74k lots) was cut by 17% to 267k lots, a 14-month low. The build in WTI longs was somewhat surprising given the near-term outlook of rising supply hitting the biggest demand shock since 2009.
Despite rising 1% during the reporting week, gold traders had already begun liquidating assets for margin calls. The reduction in both long and short positions left the net long lower by 10k lots to 258k. This before the “Dash for cash” panic resulted in a weekly drop of 8.6%, its worst in three decades. The lower the liquidity, the bigger the impact of this phenomenon with silver and platinum ending the week down by 15% while palladium collapsed by an astonishing 30%.
The HG Copper net-short was almost left unchanged at 42k lots on signs that China, it biggest consumer, had started to recover. Increased fiscal spending being announced by governments around the world is likely to cushion the price. In the short-term however it remains challenged like most other pro-cyclical commodities and it finish the week down by 3.8% and below previous support.
AI: The good, the bad, and the bubble
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Peter Garnry,
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While commodities, broadly speaking, have faced some tough months, a partial reversal during June could signal that the asset class is getting back on its feet with energy holding up and precious metals with upside potential.
Ole S. Hansen,
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John J. Hardy,
Head of FX Strategy
As inflation remains high central banks face hard decisions about whether they should keep hiking interest rates or stop. Meanwhile, the rise of AI creates bubble-like conditions that only make the decision harder.
Althea Spinozzi,
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The AI fever has turned the technology into a darling, pushing crypto further into no-man’s-land. There are striking similarities between AI and crypto, and if these are to come full circle, AI won't be spared for bubbles.
Mads Eberhardt,
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Hans Oudshoorn,
Trainer Academy
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Charu Chanana,
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Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
