COT report in charts

Commodities 5 minutes to read

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Summary: Commitments of Traders Report during the week to July 16.

The below tables highlight the changes in speculative positions held by funds that occurred in commodities, forex, bonds and stocks during the week to July 16. Please find the attached PDF’s for additional information and charts.

To download your copy of the Commitment of Traders: Commodity report, click here.

To download your copy of the Commitment of Traders: Forex report, click here.

To download your copy of the Commitment of Traders: Financials report, click here.

Commodities

IMM Currencies

Financials

The reasons why we focus primarily on the behavior of leveraged funds:

They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged
This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments
It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming

Outrageous Predictions 2023: The War Economy

Billionaire coalition creates trillion-dollar Manhattan Project for energy
The constantly growing global need for energy drives the world's richest to huddle up and launch a R&D project in a size the world hasn't seen since the Manhattan Project gave the US the first atomic bomb.
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French President Macron resigns
The political stalemate in France and the rise of Marie Le Pen following the 2022 elections corners President Macron, forcing him to give up on politics and resign from his position. At least for now.
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Gold rockets to USD 3,000 as central banks fail on inflation mandate
As markets and central banks realise that the idea that inflation is transitory is wrong, and that prices will remain higher for longer, gold is sent through the roof, hitting a price tag of USD 3,000
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EU Army forces EU down path to full union
With continued challenges in the region and a US military that isn't aggressively enacting its former role as global policeman, the European Union agrees to create its own armed forces, bringing the whole region closer.
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A country agrees to ban all meat production by 2030
In an effort to become one of the global leaders on the path to net-zero emissions, one country decides to not only put a heavy tax on meat, but to ban domestic production entirely.
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UK holds UnBrexit referendum
Following a recession and domestic pressure, the United Kingdom is thrown into political turmoil that will end with a vote to wind back Brexit.
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Widespread price controls are introduced to cap official inflation
History tells us that with the war economy comes rationing and price controls. And this time is no different, as policymakers introduce strict price controls that lead to a range of unintended consequences.
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OPEC+ & Chindia walk out of the IMF, agree to trade with new reserve asset
Sanctions against Russia have caused widespread turmoil due to US Dollar moves in countries across the globe that don't consider the US an ally. To relieve themselves from this, they leave the IMF and create a new reserve asset.
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USDJPY fixed to the USD at 200 as Japan overhauls financial system
Following the challenges that faced the Japanese Yen in 2022, the Bank of Japan attempts to keep the currency from sliding. Unsuccessful on the long-term, Japan will launch a reset of its entire financial system.
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Tax haven ban kills private equity
With the war economy comes an increased focus on national interests and sovereign nations' ability to assert themselves. In that regard, the OECD countries turn their attention on tax havens and pull the big guns out, banning them altogether.
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