Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
The US 10-year T-Note is in a confirmed short-term uptrend (higher highs and higher lows). RSI still rejected at 60, however, but there is likely more upside for the T-Note future. Strong resistance around 113 29/32.
If the Future slides back below the upper falling trendline in the falling channel (blue lines) bears could get renewed energy to push the future lower towards October lows.
The Euro Bund future is testing its upper trend line in the falling channel. A close above resistance at 142.62 is set to be reached.
The Euro Bund future could be forming an inverted Shoulder-Head-Shoulder with two shoulders on each side with the second right shoulder yet to be formed. Neckline would be the upper falling trendline in the channel.
If that pattern unfolds then we can calculate a potential target after Neckline break. Distance from Head to Neckline is added to the price of the Neckline break.
I have drawn a possible scenario. If Euro Bund closes below first right shoulder at 135.76 this scenario is likely to be busted and the Bund future is likely to test October lows around 134
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.