Quarterly Outlook
Q1 Outlook for Traders: Five Big Questions and Three Grey Swans.
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Investment and Options Strategist
Summary: When volatility refuses to calm down, even “high IV” can become a trap. This article explains how different option structures can help navigate SLV when uncertainty keeps getting repriced.
The iShares Silver Trust (SLV) is designed to track the price of physical silver, less fees and expenses. Each share represents a fractional interest in silver bullion held by the trust, making SLV a simple and accessible way for investors to gain exposure to silver without dealing with storage, insurance, or physical delivery.
As a result, SLV is often used for several distinct purposes:
Because SLV trades like a stock and has a liquid options market, it attracts both long-term investors and short-term traders. That combination is precisely what makes the options market in SLV so informative — and, at times, so challenging to navigate.
Silver can be one of the most rewarding markets to trade and one of the most punishing, sometimes in the same week. When volatility is rising, the options market tends to do two things at once:
That combination is exactly why SLV can feel hard to trade right now, even for premium sellers. High implied volatility is not automatically an invitation to “sell premium”. It can also be a warning label.
This environment can be described as a volatility‑expansion breakdown: implied volatility is near the top of its recent range, the term structure can invert (near‑dated options priced richer than longer‑dated), and downside skew remains steep. In that regime, the goal is not to find the perfect forecast. It is to choose structures that still behave sensibly if volatility stays elevated or increases further.
Most options education starts with “sell premium when implied volatility is high.” That is directionally correct but incomplete.
When implied volatility is high and rising, two common problems appear:
This is why it is worth discussing strategies that are not simply “sell a put” or “sell an iron condor.” In a dislocating, headline-driven tape, structures that look like steady income on calm days can become structurally fragile.
Before looking at strategy examples, it helps to decide which of these four goals fits your intent:
The examples below are used purely to illustrate how different option structures behave under elevated and rising implied volatility. Premiums and outcomes are indicative and will vary with the SLV price, implied volatility, and execution. Treat them as structure demonstrations rather than signals.
Update only the numbers, not the logic:
If those flip, the strategy emphasis may flip too. For example: if volatility stops rising and term structure normalises, simpler defined-risk premium selling becomes easier to justify.
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