Quarterly Outlook
Q4 Outlook for Investors: Diversify like it’s 2025 – don’t fall for déjà vu
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
Investment and Options Strategist
Summary: Bitcoin’s recent volatility has left many long-term investors unsure about when to enter, yet still interested in gaining exposure through regulated ETFs. This article explains how a simple, cash-backed approach can help investors plan a more patient entry into bitcoin while keeping risks and obligations clear.
This article builds on our earlier piece, “A cold spell or crypto winter?” (link below in the related articles section), where we explored the sharp moves in bitcoin and ethereum and the shifting sentiment behind them. That article focused on what happened and why. This one looks forward. It asks a different question: what can long-term investors do if they still believe in bitcoin’s long-term story but are unsure about when to enter?
Bitcoin has once again shown how quickly conditions can change. After its recent decline, ETF flows, sentiment and price action have been moving in short bursts of optimism and concern. Many investors feel caught between wanting long-term exposure and feeling uncomfortable committing at today’s price. Instead of trying to guess the perfect moment, a more patient, rules-based entry can help bring structure to the decision.
One way to approach that is by combining a listed bitcoin ETF with a simple cash buffer. This method gives investors two possible outcomes: earning a small premium for waiting, or buying the ETF at a lower price if the market weakens. The strategy is built around clarity and preparation rather than prediction.
BlackRock offers several versions of its spot bitcoin ETF. The US-listed version, known by its American ticker and quoted in USD on Nasdaq, is where options are available and actively traded. European investors typically cannot buy this specific ETF directly because it does not have the required EU documentation. However, and this often surprises people, the options on the US-listed ETF are available for trading in the EU. This makes it a practical reference for learning how certain option-based strategies work.
Alongside the US version, BlackRock also offers European-listed share classes under tickers such as IB1T, available on exchanges in Switzerland, France, Germany and the UK. These European ETFs are designed for straightforward buy-and-hold exposure and do not have listed options attached. Investors who want to own bitcoin through an ETF often use these European versions, while the US share class serves as the reference point for option examples.
The chart below shows the recent movements of the US-listed ETF. It reflects bitcoin’s pullback, the rebound that followed, and the wide swings in between. These fluctuations are reminders of why bitcoin can feel difficult to enter with confidence.
Despite the volatility, some investors see these conditions as an opportunity to plan rather than react. They prefer a structure in which they are prepared to buy if prices fall further, but also able to earn a small premium if prices hold steady.
A cash-secured put brings this idea to life in a simple way. It allows an investor to choose a price at which they are comfortable buying the ETF, set aside the necessary cash, and receive a premium for making that commitment. If the ETF never reaches that price, the investor keeps the premium and the cash remains untouched. If it does fall below the chosen level, the investor may end up buying the ETF at that predefined price.
Many beginners hear the word “option” and assume complexity. In this case, the opposite is true. A cash-secured put is one of the most straightforward ways to use options because everything is fully backed by cash, and the intention is aligned with something investors already understand: the willingness to buy an asset at a specific price.
To give this approach real shape, consider next week’s option prices for the US-listed ETF. The example focuses on the 50‑USD put option, which expires in about a week.
Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it's crucial to make informed decisions.
At the moment shown in the chain, the ETF trades around 52.5 USD, and the 50‑USD put option offers a premium of about 0.58 USD per share. Since each option corresponds to 100 shares, the premium an investor receives is roughly 58 USD. To secure the trade with cash, the investor sets aside 5,000 USD, which is the amount needed if they are required to buy the shares.
From here, the path is straightforward. If the ETF stays above 50 USD until expiry, the commitment ends and the investor keeps the 58 USD as income for the week. If the ETF falls below 50 USD, the investor may be assigned and buys the ETF at 50 USD. Because they already received the premium, the effective cost becomes 49.42 USD per share.
A payoff diagram helps clarify what happens at expiry.
The shape of the graph is gentle and intuitive. Above the 50‑USD level, the outcome stays close to the premium received, because the investor is never required to buy. Below 50 USD, the line tilts downward, mirroring the losses an investor would face if they had bought the ETF outright. The only difference is that the starting point is slightly lower because of the premium.
This visual also highlights what the strategy does not provide: participation in sharp upside moves. If bitcoin surges, the investor does not own the ETF and does not benefit from the rise. A cash-secured put is therefore not a bullish strategy in the traditional sense; it is a strategy for investors who want to enter the market on their own terms.
Buying the ETF at today’s price means taking full exposure right away. If the price rises, the investor benefits immediately. If it falls, the loss is felt immediately as well.
A cash-secured put softens the timing. It gives the investor breathing room. They receive income while waiting, and they only buy the ETF if the market offers a lower price. The discount created by the premium is modest, but the psychological benefit of having a rule-based entry can be meaningful for many investors.
The trade-off is equally important to understand: if bitcoin rises quickly, the investor earns only the small premium and does not take part in the upside. This feature is deliberate. A patient entry strategy is for investors who accept waiting as part of the process.
This form of structured entry is often preferred by investors who already intend to own bitcoin or a bitcoin ETF but are cautious about timing. It appeals to those who want the possibility of buying at a lower price and who are comfortable setting aside cash for a period. It is less suitable for anyone who may feel anxious about being required to buy if prices fall sharply or who needs their cash for other purposes.
Bitcoin is a high-volatility asset, and this characteristic does not disappear when using an option strategy. Large moves can happen over a weekend or overnight, and the ETF may open at a very different level to where it closed. A cash-secured put also carries the obligation to buy if the ETF is below the chosen price at expiry. Investors must be comfortable with both outcomes.
Is this safer than buying bitcoin directly?
Not in a traditional sense. It simply changes the timing and gives a small premium that softens the entry point.
Can I exit the position early?
Yes. The option can usually be bought back before expiry, though the price will depend on market conditions.
Why use the US version of the ETF in the example?
Because this is where the option market exists. The European versions are designed for long-term holding but do not have options attached.
A cash-secured put can help long-term investors build a patient and disciplined entry into a volatile asset. It keeps decisions structured and intentional rather than reactive. But like any approach involving bitcoin, it requires a clear understanding of the risks and a willingness to accept them.
This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. As always, investors should consider whether the approach aligns with their financial goals and risk tolerance.
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