Quarterly Outlook
Q1 Outlook for Traders: Five Big Questions and Three Grey Swans.
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Investment and Options Strategist
Summary: Mag7 volatility has left many long-term investors asking how to protect gains without selling their core holdings. Using Tesla as a case study, this article explains how a ‘collar’ can define a temporary downside floor and upside ceiling, helping investors stay invested while managing risk with clarity and structure.
Large-cap technology stocks have delivered strong gains in recent years. But when uncertainty rises, many long-term investors face a familiar dilemma: stay invested and accept volatility, or reduce exposure and risk missing further upside.
A collar offers a third path: it allows an investor to reduce downside risk for a limited time without selling the shares. It temporarily limits how much can be lost if the stock falls, and how much can be gained if it rises strongly. In other words, it introduces structure during uncertain periods without forcing a sale.
Importantly, a collar is not about predicting a crash. It is about defining acceptable outcomes. Instead of leaving returns open-ended in both directions, the investor deliberately transforms an equity position into a range-bound structure for a defined window.
In the sections below, we will apply this framework to Tesla as a concrete example. The same approach can be used for other stock positions where an investor seeks temporary downside protection without selling.
This article is structured in three parts:
Before going any further, it helps to clarify what a collar actually is in plain language.
A collar combines three elements:
If options feel complex, it is helpful to think of them as contracts with defined rights and obligations.
A put option acts like insurance. It allows you to sell your shares at a pre-agreed price, even if the market price falls below that level. Buying this put requires paying a premium upfront, which is the cost of that protection.
A call option, when you sell it, means you agree to sell your shares at a pre-agreed higher price if the market rises above that level. In return for taking on that obligation, you receive a premium, which provides income and can help finance the cost of the put.
The “strike price” is the pre-agreed price in the option contract. The “expiry” is the date on which that contract ends.
When combined, these two contracts create boundaries around your stock position: one price below which losses are limited, and one price above which gains are capped.
A collar therefore follows a logical sequence of decisions. Each step answers a specific question. Skipping the order can lead to strike selections that do not reflect the investor’s true objective.
Every hedge begins with time.
Options expire. Protection is temporary. The first question is therefore simple:
How long do I want protection?
Investors typically align this decision with a specific window:
The calendar choice has practical consequences. A short-dated collar may be cheaper in absolute terms, but it may require renewal if uncertainty persists. A longer-dated collar provides a smoother experience, but the investor commits to a capped upside for a longer period.
The expiry defines the duration of the protection contract. It should reflect the investor’s concern, not market noise.
Once the time horizon is defined, the next decision is about risk tolerance.
How much downside am I willing to tolerate during this period?
The long put defines the floor at expiry. It does not eliminate losses. Instead, it defines the point beyond which further downside is offset at expiration.
In practical terms, losses continue from today’s price down to the selected put strike. Below that level, the put increases in value and offsets further decline at expiry.
Two approaches typically emerge:
This decision reflects risk tolerance rather than market prediction.
Only after defining the floor does the final design question appear:
How do I want to pay for this protection?
The short call finances the long put. The strike selected determines how much upside is traded for downside protection.
Common structures include:
The ceiling is not a forecast. It is a budget choice. Once selected, the structure is complete: long stock, long put, short call.
To illustrate how this works in practice, we look at Tesla.
Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it's crucial to make informed decisions.
Consider an investor who bought Tesla several years ago and has seen the position grow significantly. The shares now trade around 410 USD. The investor still believes in Tesla’s long-term potential, but recent volatility, upcoming earnings, and broader market uncertainty make them uncomfortable with the idea of giving back a meaningful portion of those gains. Rather than selling the shares, the investor decides to protect the position for the next two months while staying invested.
Tesla has historically shown wide price swings. For an investor sitting on gains, protecting part of that value without selling the shares may be appealing during uncertain periods.
Selected expiry: 17 April 2026.
This provides a defined protection window of roughly two months and creates a clear reassessment date. It may cover an earnings release or a period of macro uncertainty. Instead of reacting to headlines day by day, the investor defines a timeframe during which protection is in place and agrees to reassess once that date arrives.
Selected put: 385 strike.
For this investor, the key concern is not normal volatility, but a sharper drawdown. The shares trade near 410. Choosing a 385 put means accepting everyday fluctuations, while drawing a line against a deeper slide over the next two months.
Losses continue from 410 down to 385. If Tesla falls below 385 by expiry, the put increases in value and offsets further downside. The investor is not trying to eliminate volatility. The goal is to avoid giving back a significant portion of long-term gains during a temporary period of uncertainty.
Selected call: 440 strike.
After defining how much downside feels acceptable, the investor decides how to finance that protection. Selling the 440 call means agreeing to sell Tesla at 440 if the shares rise above that level before expiry.
Why 440? Because it still allows for meaningful upside from 410, while generating enough premium to largely offset the cost of the 385 put. In exchange for downside protection, the investor accepts that gains beyond 440 will not be captured during this period.
Based on the displayed option premiums, the structure appears close to a near-zero-cost collar. The investor is not paying significant cash for protection. Instead, the protection is primarily financed by accepting a temporary cap on upside.
The structure now behaves like a defined corridor between 385 and 440 until mid-April. In simple terms, the investor has accepted that for the next two months, the likely outcome will fall somewhere between these two levels. Outside that range, the collar limits further impact at expiry.
Once active, the collar shifts from construction to monitoring. For many investors, this is the stage that initially feels confusing. The stock may move sharply, headlines may create emotional pressure, and the option values will fluctuate daily on the screen. Instead of trying to predict every move, the investor focuses on the boundaries that were intentionally set at the start.
If Tesla finishes above 440 at expiry, shares may be called away at that strike. The predefined return range is achieved.
Psychologically, this scenario can be challenging because the stock may continue rising beyond the capped level. However, the outcome reflects the original design decision.
Some investors may choose to replace the existing call with one at a higher strike and later expiry if they wish to retain the shares. This requires buying back the original call and selling a new one, which can reduce the overall outcome if the rally is strong.
If Tesla falls toward or below 385, the put gains value and offsets further downside at expiry.
Here, the collar performs its primary role: capital preservation during the defined window.
An investor may leave the structure intact, sell a new call closer to the current price to generate additional income, or sell the put to realise its gain and then buy a new put at a lower strike to continue protection. Each choice involves balancing immediate cash flow with the level of future protection.
If Tesla remains between the strikes, both options gradually lose time value.
This is often the least dramatic scenario. The investor monitors the position and prepares for expiry.
As the expiry date approaches, the key decision returns to step one: is protection still needed for the next window? If yes, the collar can be rolled forward with a new calendar, floor, and ceiling decision.
A collar does not attempt to predict direction. It defines boundaries.
It transforms an open-ended stock position into a defined range for a limited period.
It answers three fundamental questions:
For investors seeking peace of mind without selling their core holding, the collar provides structure in uncertain periods while maintaining participation within a defined return corridor.
A collar can be suitable for investors who already own at least 100 shares of a stock and understand the basic mechanics of buying and selling options. However, it is important to first understand what a put and a call do individually.
You still benefit from gains up to the call strike. Beyond that level, your upside is capped for the selected period.
Losses continue down to the put strike. Below that level, the put offsets further downside at expiry.
No. It means the call premium roughly offsets the put cost. The trade-off is that upside above the call strike is limited.
Yes. Both the put and the call can be closed in the market before expiry. Their value will depend on the stock price, time remaining, and market volatility.
The collar can be extended by establishing a new expiry with a new floor and ceiling. This is often referred to as rolling the strategy forward.
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