I, like fivethirtyeight.com have mixed feelings about 2020 election
- In 2012 the consensus was for a close race, despite Obama ending up winning and by a solid, no doubt margin.
- In 2016 the overwhelming consensus for a Clinton win was incredibly wrong, as she was most unelectable official in US history.
So my call and the fivethirtyeight.com calls have been based on who would lose, not win!
The 2020 US Election sees two old white men from the elite side of US battling for the Presidency, my take is:
- A Biden win de facto means more K-shaped economy, society and lack of deep reforms
- A Trump win de facto means more K-shaped economy, society and lack of deep reforms
Yes, it’s all the same. Yet another round, even if a super-sized one, of extend-and-pretend. The Fed balance sheet, currently $7 trillion, will go to $30 trillion before the next election, the government deficit will still be at 8-10% of GDP, social riots, a youth revolt and no Green transformation. When you elect from small pool of elitist politicians you will get elitist governments!
A President Biden would look like a President Carter in 1977-1980. Lots of hope but the domestic economy, severe acceleration of inflation (and stagflation) and external factors (China, anti-globalisation) will make him a one-period President delivering few or no reforms.
A President Trump would look like …well… like a Trump President from 2016-2020, but this time entirely bypassing Congress and Senate through wider and wider use of executive orders and policies rooted in a waning respect for rule of law. We can forget any reforms, much less any healing from the divisiveness of the last four years. Rather, we’ll simply see another Fed-issued blank check for infinite financial leverage without accountability, a process started by the worst central banker ever, Mr. Alan Greenspan when he bailed out LTCM in 1998.