Market Quick Take – 8 December 2025

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: Global equities ended the week higher as softer U.S. inflation supported Fed cut hopes while Europe and Asia posted uneven gains
• Volatility: SPX grind higher, VIX mid-teens, modest range, event-heavy week
• Digital Assets: BTC, ETH firmer; miners, ETFs softer; upside structures; tokenized income and bank adoption
• Fixed Income: Japan’s yields continue to rise to post-GFC highs. German Bunds set to rise to new highs since March.
• Currencies: USD soft, CAD ripped higher Friday on Canadian employment data
• Commodities: Crude oil edges higher, gold rangebound
• Macro events: US Treasury to auction 3-year notes, Australia RBA rate decision

Macro headlines

• China’s trade surplus for the month of November was USD 112 billion, bringing the January-November surplus to a record USD 1 trillion.
• US PCE price index rose 0.3% in September 2025, matching August and in line with expectations. Goods prices increased by 0.5%, while services slowed to 0.2%. Core PCE, excluding food and energy, rose 0.2%, consistent with forecasts. Annually, headline PCE inflation climbed to 2.8%, its highest since April 2024, while core PCE inflation decreased to 2.8%. September's report was delayed due to a government shutdown.
• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 53.3 in December 2025 from 51 in November, beating expectations of 52 and marking the first rise in five months. Improved personal finance expectations, notably among younger consumers, drove the increase. Year-ahead inflation expectations dropped to 4.1%, the lowest since January, and five-year expectations fell to 3.2%.
• U.S. personal spending rose 0.3% in September 2025, increasing by $65.1 billion, meeting expectations after a revised 0.5% gain in August. A $63 billion jump in services led the growth, notably in housing, healthcare, and food services. Goods spending increased slightly by $2.1 billion, driven by a $17.2 billion surge in energy goods, which offset declines in vehicles, recreational goods, and apparel.
• China's foreign exchange reserves increased by $3 billion to $3.346 trillion in November 2025, the highest since 2015, amid a weaker US dollar. The yuan fell 0.65% against the dollar, while analysts expected reserves of $3.36 trillion. The People's Bank of China also boosted its gold holdings for the thirteenth month, with reserves rising to 74.12 million fine troy ounces, increasing gold's value to $310.65 billion.
• Canada's unemployment rate fell to a 16-month low of 6.5% in November 2025, down from 6.9% and beating expectations of a rise to 7%. The unemployed population decreased by 80,000 to 1.5 million, while the labor force shrank by 26,000, lowering participation to 65.1%. Employment rose by 53,600 to 21.14 million, driven by a 63,000 increase in part-time jobs, with 18% working part-time involuntarily.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

1800 – US Treasury to auction 3-year notes
0030 – Australia NAB Business Confidence survey
0330 – Australia RBA Meeting, Cash Rate Target decision

Earnings this week

• Tue: Autozone
• Wed: Oracle, Adobe, Synopsis
• Thu: Broadcom, Costco, Lululemon

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: U.S. equities inched higher on Friday, with the S&P 500 and Dow up 0.2% and the Nasdaq gaining 0.3% as traders priced an 87% chance of a 25 basis point Fed rate cut next week. A softer core PCE inflation print, up 0.2% month on month and 2.8% year on year, plus stronger Michigan sentiment, supported the soft landing story even as long yields firmed. Alphabet rose 1.2%, Meta gained 1.8%, Broadcom added 2.4% and Salesforce jumped 5.3% on upbeat earnings, while Netflix slid 2.9% on regulatory concerns around its Warner Bros Discovery deal and weekly index gains stayed modest.
• Europe: In Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 edged up 0.1% while the broader Stoxx 600 was little changed, marking a second week of gains as investors weighed 2026 rate paths. U.S. data reinforcing Fed cut expectations and Eurozone labour market revisions that support an unchanged ECB stance kept bond yields contained and helped rate sensitive sectors. Autos outperformed again, with Mercedes Benz up about 2.0% and BMW rising 3.4% after relief on regulation and fuel rules, while defence and AI infrastructure names were mixed as traders balanced peace hopes in Ukraine with still rising defence budgets. The focus now shifts to incoming inflation prints and European Central Bank communication for clues on how quickly policy may actually ease next year.
• Asia: Across Asia, markets were mixed, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 0.6% to close at 26,085, its second straight advance and leaving the index up 0.8% for the week. Gains in tech, financial and consumer names reflected hopes for fresh Beijing stimulus even as concerns linger about shadow banking stresses. Xiaomi climbed 1.9%, food delivery group Meituan rose about 1.0% and gold producer Zijin Mining also advanced, while excitement over China's AI ambitions peaked as Moore Threads, often called "China's Nvidia", surged more than fivefold in its Shanghai debut. Regional investors now look for concrete policy follow through and signs that the AI listing boom can broaden beyond a handful of high profile chip names.

Volatility

• Volatility in equities stays subdued as the S&P 500 edges up to around 6,870 while the VIX slips to the mid-15s and very short-dated VIX1D and VIX9D sit in single- to low-teens territory. Term structure in VIX futures remains upward sloping, with front contracts near 17–19, signalling modest demand for protection into a heavy macro week rather than panic.
• SPX options into Friday’s 12 December expiry are pricing an expected move of roughly ±91 points, or about 1.3%, which is typical for a pre-FOMC environment. With multiple central-bank decisions and U.S. labour and inflation data ahead, even a small surprise could quickly reprice this calm surface.

Digital Assets

• Bitcoin pushes back above USD 91,500 and ether trades above USD 3,100, yet listed crypto equities and ETFs trade softer, with IBIT, ETHA and major miners like MARA, RIOT and CLSK all lower as traders lock in recent gains. Options flow over the past week still leans constructive: investors continue to express BTC upside via structures in IBIT and MicroStrategy while using covered calls and put-writing across COIN and selected miners, keeping overall positioning “long but paid to wait.”
• On the structural side, ZKsync’s decision to sunset its Lite rollup in 2026, new tokenized options-income funds from WisdomTree, and BPCE’s rollout of in-app crypto trading show how infrastructure and tokenized strategies continue to deepen around the core BTC/ETH trade.

Fixed Income

• Japanese government bonds were under pressure across the entire yield curve in the Monday session to start the week despite the negative GDP revision for Q3 growth in Japan as the two-year benchmark JGB rose over a basis point to a fresh cycle high near 1.07%. Further out the curve, the 10-year benchmark JGB set another post-GFC high of 1.97% as it eyes the 25-year high just above 2.00%.
• US treasuries came under further pressure Friday and in Monday’s Asian session, with the 2-year benchmark treasury yield lifting toward 3.57%, up almost five basis points from last Thursday’s close, while the 10-year likewise rose several basis points to 4.14%.
• The German 10-year Bund yield lifted aggressively late last week, eyeing the top of the range since March at 2.80% as of Friday’s close.

Commodities

• Gold and silver trade within recent ranges after a rally on Friday faltered, within the recent range below USD 4,245 in the case of gold, while silver managed to post a new all-time high above 59 per ounce before retreating back toward 58.25 on Monday in a volatile Asian session to start the week.
• Crude oil prices continue to nudge higher, with February Brent near 64 dollars a barrel and January WTI just above 60 dollars a barrel to start the week.

Currencies

• The dollar trades soft ahead of this Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, with EURUSD rebounding above 1.1650 this morning, while the commodity dollars and have rallied the strongest against the greenback.
• The JPY continues to trade on the weak side as an attempt through 154.50 support in USDJPY Friday was gathered up, although expectations of a BoJ hike next week remain despite negative GDP revisions. The Canadian dollar tore higher versus the US dollar on strong Canadian employment data Friday, as the November unemployment rate shocked with a 6.5% reading versus 7.0% expected and 6.9% in October. Canadian 2-year yields lifted over 15 basis points on the news and USDCAD plunged over 1% to near 1.3825 from near 1.3950 the prior day.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.