Market Quick Take – 4 December 2025

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: Equities were mixed, with Wall Street grinding higher on AI and retail earnings, Europe flat, and Asia weighed by China
• Volatility: VIX near 16, volatility surface calm, Jobless claims and earnings as potential catalysts
• Digital assets: Ethereum above USD 3,200 post-Fusaka upgrade, IBIT and ETHA gain with renewed ETF interest
• Currencies: US dollar weakens below key levels in places, sterling surges
• Commodities: Gold and silver consolidate lower, US natural gas at highest since 2022 on weather forecasts
• Fixed Income: Japan’s 10-year yield extends to new high, but 30-year JGB turns lower on strong auction.
• Macro events: US Nov. Challenger Job Cuts, US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims

Macro headlines

• In the US, the ADP said companies shed payrolls in November by the most since early 2023, with private‑sector employment down 32,000 as firms with fewer than 50 employees cut 120,000—the largest one‑month drop since May 2020—while wage growth cooled, with job changers’ pay up 6.3%, the lowest since February 2021.
• The US ISM Services survey rose to 52.6 in November, marking the strongest sector growth in nine months and beating forecasts. Business activity and new orders expanded, with the backlog of orders hitting a high since February. However, tariffs and the government. shutdown continue to pressure demand and costs. Employment contracted at 48.9, while supplier deliveries slowed. Price pressures eased to a seven-month low.
• Switzerland’s November CPI fell to 0.0% YoY vs. +0.1% expected and versus +0.2% YoY in October. For the MoM numbers, the CPI fell -0.2% vs. -0.1% expected and -0.3% in October

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0700 – Sweden Nov. CPI
1230 – US Nov. Challenger Job Cuts
1330 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Claims
1530 – US Weekly Natural Gas Storage

Earnings events

• Today: Kroger, Hewlett-Packard, Ulta Beauty, Dollar General

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: US stocks extended their rebound, with the S&P 500 up 0.3% to 6,849.7, the Dow adding 0.9% and the Nasdaq 0.2%, as two-thirds of index members advanced despite megacap fatigue. Breadth came from AI infrastructure and select retailers while investors digested softer labour data that reinforced expectations for Fed rate cuts. Salesforce rose 1.7% and climbed further after hours on a stronger-than-expected AI-driven outlook, while Marvell jumped 7.9% after guiding for a 25% rise in data-centre revenue next year. American Eagle surged 15.1% on a beat-and-raise quarter and iRobot rocketed 73.9% on hopes of US support for robotics, contrasting with Microsoft’s 2.5% drop and Snowflake’s 7.9% after-hours slide on worries about AI demand and margins.
• Europe: European equities were subdued, with the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.2% to 5,699.6 and the Stoxx 600 edging 0.1% higher to 576.2. Investors weighed diverging ECB messages as President Lagarde talked up stable inflation while chief economist Lane warned of upside risks, even as soft US labour data strengthened Fed cut expectations. ASML gained 2.6% after broker upgrades, Inditex jumped 8.9% on robust earnings and guidance, and Stellantis rallied 7.7% after a bullish rating change, while Airbus added 1.5% as it stuck to financial targets despite delivery tweaks. Financials lagged, with major insurers and banks down between 1.3% and 2.0%, and attention now turns to eurozone inflation and upcoming ECB speeches.
• Asia: Asian trading was mixed, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 up 1.1% to 49,864.7 while China’s CSI 300 slipped 0.5% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.3% to 25,761. Sentiment in Greater China weakened as services activity data pointed to slower growth and Fitch placed property giant Vanke on “Rating Watch Negative,” dragging local developers 1.6% lower and weighing on financials and tech. PICC Property & Casualty dropped 4.1% and chipmaker SMIC lost 2.1%, while rare-earth exporters found some support after Beijing issued new export licences. By contrast, Japanese equities rode the global AI and tech wave, with SoftBank Group climbing 6.4% alongside gains in chip-equipment names, as investors position ahead of US data and key China inflation readings.

Volatility

• Volatility continues to drift lower, with the VIX settling near 16 and signalling a calmer surface even as underlying uncertainty remains. SPX trades around 6,850, and options expiring today imply a relatively tight expected move of about ±30 index points (roughly ±0.4%). The same-day SPX options chain shows a mild upside skew, with at-the-money calls priced slightly richer than puts, suggesting investors are leaning toward short-dated upside participation while still maintaining broader downside hedges.
• Despite the calm, jobless claims later this morning and several US earnings releases could inject pockets of volatility into an otherwise steady backdrop.

Digital assets

• Crypto markets are stabilising after the week’s sharp swings, with bitcoin holding near USD 93k following a strong rebound from the USD 84k area. Ethereum trades slightly above USD 3,200 after the Fusaka network upgrade, which promises higher data throughput and lower transaction costs across layer-2 networks.
• Spot crypto ETFs continue to recover, with IBIT and ETHA advancing alongside spot prices as institutional access improves and platform restrictions ease. Altcoins such as Solana, XRP and Cardano remain supported, though recent volatility highlights the importance of moderate sizing and disciplined risk management.

Fixed income

• Japanese long-dated government bonds under intensifying pressure overnight, with the 10-year JGB benchmark up some four basis points to 1.94% in late Asian trading on Thursday, possibly soon eyeing the 2.015% high for this century from 2006. A rather different look for the 30-year benchmark, however, as new highs above 3.43% in the yield saw buying that drove the yield back toward 3.40% on a strong 30-year bond auction.
• US treasuries are buried within recent ranges, with the two-year treasury benchmark sticky around the 3.50% level, while the 10-year benchmark yield chopping lower below 4.05% yesterday before rising back to nearly unchanged at 4.08%.

Commodities

• The Silver rally ran into resistance just ahead of USD 59 per ounce yesterday, retreating below 57.50 in Asia’s Thursday session, with plenty of room for consolidation after soaring quickly above the previous high of 54.46.
• Gold continues to consolidate after the failed charge above the USD 4,245 resistance level, retreating to below the 4,200 level in Asia’s Thursday session.
• The price for the prompt US natural gas future rose above 5 dollars per MMBTU for the first time since 2022 as very cold weather is forecast for the US for the coming week.

Currencies

• The dollar slipped further yesterday, even before the soft US data, with EURUSD trading above the 1.1650+ resistance area, though the break failed to trigger a notable extension higher. USDJPY edged back to 155.00 at its lows overnight before bouncing back toward 155.40. Elsewhere, AUDUSD traded above 0.6600 for the first time since late October.
• Sterling put in a strong rally yesterday as key levels fell in EURGBP at 0.8750 and in GBPUSD near 1.3275, with the latter extending to above 1.3350 at one point yesterday in late trading before easing back, while EURGBP posted lows below 0.8740 after falling from near 0.8800 earlier in the day.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.