Asia Market Quick Take – 16 April, 2026

Asia Market Quick Take – 16 April, 2026

Key points:

• Macro: US & Iran looking to extend ceasefire to allow time for talks
• Equities: Nasdaq reaches a new all time high; MSFT has best gain in a year
• FX: Dollar slides on ceasefire optimism; CNH outperforms, JPY stays soft
• Commodities: Commodities stabilise in midst of current ceasefire
• Fixed income: Treasuries fell, yields rebounded from >2‑week closing lows

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

• Washington and Tehran are weighing a ceasefire extension to allow more peace talks, while the US naval blockade keeps the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed and markets on edge. Iran has warned it could retaliate by suspending shipments in nearby waters, and a second round of talks is expected to focus on reopening the strait and Iran’s nuclear program.
• US businesses pulled back on hiring and spending due to uncertainty from the Iran war, according to the Federal Reserve's beige book report.
• President Trump threatened to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell if he doesn't step down when his term expires on May 15.
• BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said the central bank is in no rush to raise interest rates despite the energy shock from the Iran conflict, noting markets got ahead of themselves with rate hike bets.
• ECB officials are said to be leaning toward keeping interest rates unchanged in April, postponing their verdict on whether the Iran war fallout warrants a response.
• Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said authorities are prepared for bold action on foreign exchange if needed after discussions with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
• US import prices rose 0.8% m/m in March 2026 after 0.9% in February, below the 2% forecast, with fuel up 2.9% and nonfuel imports up 0.6%. They were 2.1% higher y/y, the biggest rise since December 2024.

Equities:

• US: S&P 500 surged 0.8% to a record high of 7,022.95, closing above 7,000 for the first time since January, while the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.4% to reach a fresh all-time high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2%. Technology stocks led gains, with Microsoft rising 4.6% for its best daily performance in almost a year and Tesla climbing 6.7% for its largest percentage increase since November 2025. Bank of America and Morgan Stanley posted strong earnings, with Bank of America reporting a 17% profit jump and shares rising 1.8%. Carrier Global was the worst performer in the S&P 500, down over 10%. Robinhood Markets had the largest increase, rising 10.4%.Allbirds makes an announcement to pivot from shoemaking to AI infrastructure, resulting in a 582% gain. 
• EU: European stocks retreated, with the Stoxx 600 Index falling 0.4% from a six-week high as disappointing earnings from regional heavyweights weighed on sentiment. Luxury stocks were the biggest drag, with Hermes plunging 8.2% as the Middle East war dented sales and Kering slumping 9.3% as Gucci sales disappointed. Dutch chipmaking equipment giant ASML dropped 4.2% after its strong earnings report failed to impress investors following a 33% rally this year. The DAX in Germany rose 0.09% to 24,066.70, while the FTSE 100 in London fell 0.47% to 10,559.58. The Swiss Market Index closed 0.38% lower.
• Asia: Asian stocks gained as the US and Iran stepped up efforts to arrange a second round of peace talks, reviving hopes for an end to hostilities in the Middle East. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 1.4%, led by gains in TSMC and Samsung Electronics. South Korea's Kospi outperformed, rising 2.1% to 6,091.39, its highest closing level since February 27, with Samsung Electronics contributing the most to the index gain by increasing 2.2%. The Nikkei Stock Average rose 0.4% to 58,134.24 on Wednesday, with futures up 0.6% at 58,620 on the SGX. Elliott Investment Management took a significant stake in Daikin Industries and urged the Japanese manufacturer to address undervaluation via margin expansion and higher shareholder returns. CATL’s Q1 2026 earnings beat expectations, with net income up 49% to 20.74b yuan and revenue up 52% to 129.13b yuan, supported by better ESS mix and cost control. It’s strengthening mineral supply, exploring up to US$5b fundraising.

Earnings this week:

• Thursday: Taiwan Semiconductor, Netflix, Moutai, Pepsico

FX:

• USDextended declines for an eighth straight day, posting its longest losing streak since June 2020, down about 1.9% over the period on optimism that Washington and Tehran are closer to extending a ceasefire.
•  The offshore CNH rose to a three-year high versus the dollar this week and is one of only a few currencies that managed to rise since the Iran conflict started, reflecting China's perceived resilience to the energy shock.
• JPY edged lower against the dollar as expectations retreated that the Bank of Japan will hike rates this month, with USDJPY up 0.1% to 158.94, though traders kept bolstering their expectations on a stronger yen over the coming month. The JPY has hit a decade-low against the SGD.
• EUR gained for eight straight sessions, rising 0.02% to $1.1800, its highest five pm New York rate since February 27, 2026.
• AUD registered the best performance against the US dollar among 14 major currencies, strengthening 0.5%.

Commodities:

• Oil prices stabilized after a nearly 8% slide on Tuesday, with WTI futures steady as the US and Iran considered extending their ceasefire by another two weeks to allow more time to negotiate a peace agreement.
• Gold edged higher above $4,810/oz after a 1.1% drop on hopes for a two‑week US–Iran ceasefire extension easing inflation worries, even as Hormuz traffic remains choked by a US blockade and Iranian restrictions.
• The global silver market is expected to remain in a deficit for a sixth consecutive year amid robust demand for bars and coins and declining supplies, with the 2026 deficit projected to widen by 15% to 46.3 million troy ounces.
• Copper edged lower as traders eyed the prospect of peace negotiations between the US and Iran, with the copper cash-to-three-month spread falling $27.33 to -$58.84 a ton on the London Metal Exchange.

Fixed income:

• Treasuries fell, lifting yields from their lowest closing levels in more than two weeks, with US government bond yields two to four basis points higher on the day, as oil prices steadied with Middle East supply curtailed by the US war on Iran.
• Foreign holdings of US Treasuries climbed by the most in a year in February, hitting a new record high of $9.49 trillion, led by gains in the Canadian and Saudi stockpiles.
• The IMF warned that the escalating scale of US debt issuance is undermining the premium Treasuries have commanded from investors, with the increase in US Treasury security supply compressing the safety premium and pushing up borrowing costs globally.

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