Datdogheader

Datadog’s big bark: why AI may not be the end of software

Equities 5 minutes to read
Ruben Dalfovo
Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Key takeaways

  • Datadog’s strong results show AI can boost some software demand, not only disrupt it.

  • The market is separating useful, embedded software from tools that AI may replace or bundle.

  • For investors, the key question is simple: does AI make the product more necessary?


Datadog just gave the software sector something it badly needed: evidence that artificial intelligence (AI) is not only a threat. Sometimes, it is also a customer.

On 7 May 2026, Datadog closed at 188.73 USD up 31.3%, after the company reported stronger than expected first-quarter results and raised its full-year outlook. That is not a normal Thursday for a software stock. That is a labrador hearing the word “walk”.

Datadog sells cloud monitoring and security software. In plain English, it helps companies see what is happening inside their digital systems, spot problems, and fix them before customers notice. This is called observability, which sounds like a university word, but really means “do we know what just broke, where, and why?”

The bigger message goes beyond one company. For months, investors have worried that AI will hurt software-as-a-service (SaaS), where customers rent software online instead of buying it once. The fear is simple: if AI agents can write code, handle support, analyse data and automate office tasks, some software tools may become less valuable. Datadog’s results show the story is more nuanced. AI is not taking a flamethrower to software. It is sorting the useful from the replaceable.

The market liked growth with a reason

Datadog’s first-quarter revenue rose 32% from a year earlier to 1.01 billion USD. The company also lifted its 2026 revenue outlook to between 4.30 billion USD and 4.34 billion USD, above earlier guidance and analyst expectations. Adjusted earnings were 0.60 USD per share, also ahead of expectations, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

The quality of the growth mattered. Datadog ended the quarter with about 4,550 customers spending at least 100,000 USD in annual recurring revenue, up 21% from a year earlier. Annual recurring revenue means the revenue a company expects to repeat over a year from subscriptions. For investors, this helps show whether customers are staying and expanding, not just signing one-off deals.

The company also generated 289 million USD of free cash flow. Free cash flow is the cash left after running and investing in the business. It matters because growth funded by real cash is usually healthier than growth funded mainly by hope, conference slides and very expensive coffee.

This is why the share price reaction was so strong. Investors were not only reacting to a beat. They were reacting to a company that appears to sit where two forces meet: cloud complexity and AI complexity.

AI is not killing software. It is changing the test

The old SaaS question was: how many people use the software? The new AI question is: how deeply does the software sit inside the customer’s operations?

That is a big difference. Tools that charge per employee may face pressure if AI reduces headcount or automates tasks. Simple workflow tools may also face bundling risk, where large platforms such as Microsoft, Google or Salesforce add similar features inside broader packages. When a feature becomes part of the furniture, standalone pricing can get harder.

Datadog is a different type of software company. It is closer to digital infrastructure. When companies use more cloud services, more applications, more AI models and more automated agents, their systems become harder to manage. More moving parts mean more things can fail. Datadog sells the control room.

AI may therefore increase the need for observability. Large language models, the systems behind tools such as chatbots and agents, can fail in ways traditional software did not. They can slow down, produce errors, overload systems, or cost too much to run. Companies using AI need to know what is happening across models, graphics processing units (GPUs), data flows, security alerts and customer experiences.

That is the important lesson. AI does not treat all software equally. It pressures some tools, lifts others, and forces every company to prove its relevance.

From selling seats to solving problems

The SaaS model is also changing. Many older software businesses grew by selling more seats, meaning more users inside a customer. That model works well when employment grows and software spreads across departments. It looks less bulletproof when AI agents can do more work with fewer human clicks.

Datadog’s model benefits more from usage and complexity. If a customer runs more applications, produces more data, or deploys more AI systems, the need for monitoring can rise. This does not make the business risk-free, but it gives investors a clearer reason why AI can be a tailwind.

That distinction is useful across the software sector. A company may be more resilient if it helps customers manage risk, lower costs, protect data, improve uptime, or run AI safely. A company may be more exposed if AI can easily copy its output, reduce its user base, or allow a larger platform to bundle the same function.

In short, software investors now need a sharper filter. “AI exposure” is not enough. Every company claims that, preferably before lunch. The better question is whether AI makes the product more necessary, less necessary, or merely more marketable.

Risks: not every bark means a moat

There are still risks. Datadog’s valuation now reflects a lot of good news, so even small disappointments could matter. Strong growth can support high expectations, but high expectations rarely come with a safety helmet.

Competition is another risk. Cloud providers, security vendors and other software platforms all want more of the same budget. Customers may also try to simplify their software stacks, especially if the economy weakens.

Finally, AI demand itself could become uneven. Companies are still learning how much value they get from AI tools in production. Watch for signs such as slower customer growth, weaker usage expansion, lower free cash flow margins, or management talking more about “long-term opportunity” than near-term adoption.

Investor playbook: follow the usefulness

  • Separate AI labels from AI economics. Look for revenue growth, cash flow and customer expansion.
  • Watch pricing models. Usage-based revenue may benefit when digital activity grows.
  • Check whether AI raises complexity. More complexity can support monitoring, security and data tools.
  • Keep position size in context. Great stories can still become expensive stories.

The bigger lesson

Datadog’s results do not prove that all software is safe from AI disruption. They prove something more useful: the software sector is not one single story. AI can replace some tasks, weaken some pricing models, and make some tools look ordinary. But it can also create new problems that companies must monitor, secure and control.

Datadog rallied because investors saw a software business standing near that control layer. For long-term investors, that is the real takeaway. The AI age may not reward every software company, but it still needs software that keeps the machines from turning the office into a very expensive guessing game.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

 

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Q1 Outlook for Traders: Five Big Questions and Three Grey Swans.

    Quarterly Outlook

    Q1 Outlook for Traders: Five Big Questions and Three Grey Swans.

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    Strap yourself in for key market questions that must be answered in 2026.
  • Q1 Outlook for Investors: “AI” party hangover needs discipline and diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Q1 Outlook for Investors: “AI” party hangover needs discipline and diversification

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    2026 is a high-valuation, high-dispersion year: the AI story matures, policy becomes less predictabl...
  • Q4 Outlook for Investors: Diversify like it’s 2025 – don’t fall for déjà vu

    Quarterly Outlook

    Q4 Outlook for Investors: Diversify like it’s 2025 – don’t fall for déjà vu

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Q4 Outlook for Traders: The Fed is back in easing mode. Is this time different?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Q4 Outlook for Traders: The Fed is back in easing mode. Is this time different?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    The Fed launched a new easing cycle in late Q3. Will this cycle now play out like 2000 or 2007?
  • Q3 Investor Outlook: Beyond American shores – why diversification is your strongest ally

    Quarterly Outlook

    Q3 Investor Outlook: Beyond American shores – why diversification is your strongest ally

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Q3 Macro Outlook: Less chaos, and hopefully a bit more clarity

    Quarterly Outlook

    Q3 Macro Outlook: Less chaos, and hopefully a bit more clarity

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    After the chaos of Q2, the quarter ahead should get a bit more clarity on how Trump 2.0 is impacting...
  • Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Upending the global order at blinding speed

    Quarterly Outlook

    Upending the global order at blinding speed

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ...
  • Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Quarterly Outlook

    Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

Disclaimer

The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-hk/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo or its affiliates.


Hong Kong

Contact Saxo

Hong Kong S.A.R
Hong Kong S.A.R

Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited (“Saxo”) is a company authorised and regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. Saxo holds a Type 1 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Securities); Type 2 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Futures Contract); Type 3 Regulated Activity (Leveraged Foreign Exchange Trading); Type 4 Regulated Activity (Advising on Securities) and Type 9 Regulated Activity (Asset Management) licenses (CE No. AVD061). Registered address: 19th Floor, Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower, 12 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. Please click here to view the relevant risk disclosure statements.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-hk/about-us/awards.

The information or the products and services referred to on this site may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and services offered on this website are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity residing in the United States and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.