Quarterly Outlook
Q4 Outlook for Investors: Diversify like it’s 2025 – don’t fall for déjà vu
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
NY Open: Sentiment boost sees strong open for equities, USD
Michael O’Neill
FX Trader, Loonieviews.net
Summary: Wall Street is wary, but a shift toward stronger sentiment has allowed some further recovery post- the opening bell. The shifting tides are due to a shaky Sino-US circumstance post-the Huawei arrest, as well as uncertainty ahead of upcoming central bank meetings.
Today's equity markets are about as skittish as a baby deer in hunting season. Prices rise and fall, seemingly lifted by invisible gusts – typical moves in a pre-central bank meeting data void. The European Central Bank meets Thursday and the Federal Open Market Committee doesn’t meet until next week; Wall Street is taking its cue, it seems, from US/China trade talk sentiment.
China’s unhappiness with the arrest of the Huawei CFO and threats of “consequences” led to yesterday morning’s selling. Buyers reemerged after reports that Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer held telephone negotiations with their Chinese counterparts.
Stocks got an added boost today after Bloomberg reported that China is getting set to cut tariffs on US cars from 40% to 15%. That move is a concession by China which modestly improves the prospect for successful trade talks. More immediately, it set the stage for this mornings “pop” when Wall Street opened. Tesla (TSLA: Nasdaq) rose 0.23% on the news. However, the day is young, and prices have already retreated from their best levels as of 14:00 GMT.
Wall Street, like Bambi, is not out of the woods.
The US dollar opened with small losses compared to yesterday’s closing levels, but those losses evaporated quickly, led by fresh selling of EURUSD. The slightly better than expected November US Producer Price Index (actual 0.1% m/m versus a forecasted 0.0, ex food-energy 0.3% vs. 0.1%) contributed to the downward pressure on the single currency. The break below support at 1.1350 targets the November uptrend support line at 1.1305.
USDCAD is consolidating yesterday’s gains. The short-term technical picture is bullish following the break above 1.3380 with traders looking for a break of resistance in the 1.3440-60 area to extend gains to 1.3550. The employment data added another wrinkle to the confusion surrounding the Bank of Canada’s flip-flop from hawkish in October to dovish in December. Weak oil prices and the prospect of a US rate hike next week is also underpinning the currency pair.
China’s unhappiness with the arrest of the Huawei CFO and threats of “consequences” led to yesterday morning’s selling. Buyers reemerged after reports that Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer held telephone negotiations with their Chinese counterparts.
Stocks got an added boost today after Bloomberg reported that China is getting set to cut tariffs on US cars from 40% to 15%. That move is a concession by China which modestly improves the prospect for successful trade talks. More immediately, it set the stage for this mornings “pop” when Wall Street opened. Tesla (TSLA: Nasdaq) rose 0.23% on the news. However, the day is young, and prices have already retreated from their best levels as of 14:00 GMT.
Wall Street, like Bambi, is not out of the woods.
The US dollar opened with small losses compared to yesterday’s closing levels, but those losses evaporated quickly, led by fresh selling of EURUSD. The slightly better than expected November US Producer Price Index (actual 0.1% m/m versus a forecasted 0.0, ex food-energy 0.3% vs. 0.1%) contributed to the downward pressure on the single currency. The break below support at 1.1350 targets the November uptrend support line at 1.1305.
USDCAD is consolidating yesterday’s gains. The short-term technical picture is bullish following the break above 1.3380 with traders looking for a break of resistance in the 1.3440-60 area to extend gains to 1.3550. The employment data added another wrinkle to the confusion surrounding the Bank of Canada’s flip-flop from hawkish in October to dovish in December. Weak oil prices and the prospect of a US rate hike next week is also underpinning the currency pair.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Q4 Outlook for Traders: The Fed is back in easing mode. Is this time different?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
The Fed launched a new easing cycle in late Q3. Will this cycle now play out like 2000 or 2007? -
Quarterly Outlook
Q3 Investor Outlook: Beyond American shores – why diversification is your strongest ally
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Q3 Macro Outlook: Less chaos, and hopefully a bit more clarity
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
After the chaos of Q2, the quarter ahead should get a bit more clarity on how Trump 2.0 is impacting... -
Quarterly Outlook
Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Upending the global order at blinding speed
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Disclaimer