Silver picks up the baton from gold
Head of Commodity Strategy
Summary: During the past six weeks silver has outperformed gold by 10%. This as it continues to claw back some of the territory it lost in recent years.
Silver continues to claw back some of the territory it lost to gold during the past few years. Gold’s impressive rally that began with the emerging collapse in global bond yields back in early June initially left silver trailing. The ratio measuring the value of one ounce of gold in ounces of silver hit a multi-decade high above 93 last month before a very crowded long in gold began to see investors divert to silver instead.
During the past six weeks silver has outperformed gold by 10% with the ratio falling to the current 84. The latest run higher occurred after silver on Monday following a couple of attempts finally broke above $17.50/oz, the 50% retracement of the 2016 to 2018 sell-off.
From a technical perspective silver is currently finding some resistance at $18.36 as per the chart below. However, given the record speculative long position in gold and a silver long which can double before hitting its 2017 record the potential for further silver gains remain. At current levels the gold-silver ratio still trades some 8% above the five-year average.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook Q3 2022: The Runaway Train
- Central banks' attempts to kill inflation is a paradigm shift, which could end in a deep recession.
Tangible assets and profitable growth are the winnersWith US equities officially in a bear market, the big question is where and when is the bottom in the current drawdown?
Understanding the lack of investment appetite among oil majorsThe everything rally seen in recent quarters has become more uneven, as its strength is driven by commodities in short supply.
The pressure is on as the wind leaves the sailsWith cryptocurrencies in sharp decline, are we entering a crypto winter or is the bear market a healthy clean-up of the crypto space?
Why the Fed can never catch up and what turns the US dollar lower?Many other central banks are set to eventually outpace the Fed in hiking rates, taking their real interest rates to levels higher than the Fed will achieve.
Bank of Japan: Swimming against the tideThe Japanese economy has gone from the age of deflation to rapidly rising prices in no time, leaving the Bank of Japan in a pickle.
Green transformation detour and bear market hibernationWith the impending risk of global econonomic derailment, we share the five things investors need to consider in this new half year.
Crisis redux for the eurozone?Whether there's going to be a recession in Europe or not, the path towards a stable economy will be agonizing.
Technical Outlook: Gold, Oil and a remarkable multi-decade perspective on EquitiesThe Nasdaq bubble pattern, USDJPY resistance, crude oil uptrend losing steam and the technical outlook for USD.
China: the train of new development paradigm left the station two years agoChina is transiting to a new development paradigm, as they are hit by deteriorating terms of trade, a slower global economy and an uncertain future while continuing attempts to contain the pandemic.