Macro: Sandcastle economics
Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.
Chief Investment Strategist
In the fourth quarter, financial markets will focus on key events such as the Fed’s rate cut cycle and the US election. While both events are important, the real question for equities in the medium-term remains whether the economy is slipping into a recession in 2025. Based on the factors listed below, the probability of a recession starting over the next year is still low, but not insignificant, and we set the probability at 25%. However, the lagged impact from higher interest rates is still the big unknown variable in the recession equation and thus the 25% probability reflects a likelihood above normal.
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