Quarterly Outlook
Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
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Technical Update - Asia-Pacific Equity Indices Nikkei, Hang Seng and ASX200
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
The Hang Seng Index broke out bullish of the falling wedge like pattern now hovering around resistance at around 24,385. A close above 24,562 is likely to fuel another rally towards its strong resistance area between 25,746 and 26,214.
RSI closed above 60 threshold supporting the new uptrend which has short term potential up to the 25,745 – 26,125 area.
For the bullish break out scenario to be demolished Hang Seng needs to drop back in the Wedge. First indication of that scenario to play out would be a close of the gap from the 11th and 12th January i.e. a close below 23,739.
If that scenario plays out we could see another attempt at testing December low at around 22,665
Nikkei 225 seems to be trading in a wide slightly rising channel hovering around both the 55 and 200 SMA’s.
During today’s session the Index hovered around the lower rising trend line testing the support at around 27,893 to close a few points below the trend line but holding on above the support.
However, RSI is still indicating bearish sentiment being rejected at the 60 threshold which indicates we could see more downwards pressure. A close below support at 27,893 will confirm bearish trend.
The bullish break out in S&P ASX 200 Index didn’t last long before it got beaten back down below the 7,500 level.
It seems to have found support at the short term rising trend line but could be hit by another wave of selling if the Index closes below 7,355.
However, RSI is still indicating bullish sentiment and the Index value is above both 55 and 200 SMA indicating the 7.355 support to hold. A close above 7.500 could re-ignite the uptrend.
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