Bracing for possible Fed emergency hike
Saxo Market Call
Summary: Today, we look at the hot US January CPI data hitting the markets yesterday, with an interesting attempt at a whiplash inducing bounce in sentiment just after the data release dealt an initial blow to sentiment as more Fed hikes were priced into the forward curve. Then markets turned south again when St. Louis Fed President and FOMC voter Stephen Bullard later administered a hawkish broadside with thoughts on an emergency Fed rate hike, a rapid path to 100 basis points of hikes and an imminent start to quantitative tightening. We also look at the impact on commodity markets from yesterday's developments and the Bank of Japan doubling down for now on its yield-curve-control policy and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app:
Latest Market Insights
Q4 Outlook 2022: Winter is coming
- Winter is coming to the financial markets as central banks are tightening their grip. How spring will look is still a question.
European energy crisis: it will get worse before it gets betterThe winter in Europe will be tough, but whether the result is political chaos or sustainable, innovative solutions is still undecided.
A difficult and volatile quarter awaitsAs the year draws to an end, commodities continue to be at centre stage of the world with growth pockets political uncertainty.
The bright side: crises drive innovationThe positive spin on crises is that they come with solutions. It is worrisome that deglobalisation may be a response to this crisis.
Green transformation in China: renewable energy and beyondGoing green, China needs to span numerous energy sources to ensure stability, as every source comes with a challenge.
Asia: Intermittent solutions, but a faster renewable adoption curveAsian energy supply is being squeezed. This and the adoption of renewables may change the investment sentiment in the region.
FX: A Fed thaw needed to deliver a sustained USD turn lowerThe US Dollar can keep momentum when the Federal Reserve continues to tighten, leaving the rest to play to their drum.
Autumn can become ugly for equities and bond holders. Comfort for Dollar longsTechnical analysis suggests that equities could face a tough Q4 as could fixed income. US Dollar positions could provide some upside.
The next stock market sector to watch, with stocks going nuclearAs the world scrambles to find affordable, sustainable energy, nuclear is getting attention from politicians and investors alike.
The crypto space is getting cold when the hype disappearsCryptocurrencies face a winter of their own as retail investors and governments are asking tough questions.