Quarterly Outlook
Q3 Investor Outlook: Beyond American shores – why diversification is your strongest ally
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
Investment and Options Strategist
Data through market open 8 September 2025
This monitor tracks how option market activity is clustering across US-listed stocks, ETFs, and indices. We highlight where open interest is growing, how skew and implied volatility shape sentiment, and which tickers show signs of institutional interest.
Each edition also features a spotlight deep dive on a single name showing unusual flows, rising implied volatility, or proximity to a key event. This week’s focus is on Adobe (ADBE), which reports earnings on 11 September and is drawing elevated options interest across multiple strikes.
Note: This edition covers US-listed instruments. European listings will be included in future versions.
Adobe reports on 11 September, and options are pricing in an 8.9% post-earnings move—above the 7–8% implied range seen in recent quarters, and higher than the 8.1% average actual move over the last 20 results. Notably, Adobe has moved more than implied in six of the past eight earnings releases, pointing to a pattern of underpriced event volatility.
Options activity is climbing. Over 36,000 contracts traded in the last session—129% above the pre-earnings average—and the put-to-call volume ratio sits near 1.0, indicating no strong directional skew. However, implied volatility is rich, with the one-month IV at 53.3% versus 29.8% realised, placing it in the 95th percentile over the past year.
The open interest distribution (see below) reinforces this elevated uncertainty. Put interest clusters between 290 and 330, suggesting a downside hedge zone. Call OI is more spread out, with notable peaks around 360 to 400. This suggests traders are bracing for a wide move in either direction, without a clear pinning strike. The put-heavy base near 320–330 could act as short-term support if the stock declines.
Adobe shares have dropped 19% over the last three months and 41% over the past year, significantly underperforming the broader S&P 500. That weak backdrop likely explains why traders are turning to options for both protection and tactical exposure ahead of earnings.
What it means: The options market expects a volatile earnings reaction. With premiums elevated, premium sellers may find opportunities—but directional traders should consider the cost of entry and the wide expected move when structuring trades.
Open interest distribution – expiry 12 Sep 2025
Rank | Ticker | Name | Last | IV Rank (%) | Total OI | 1M OI % Chg | Options Vol | P/C Vol |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | $SPX | S&P 500 Index | 6481.50 | 8.2% | 21.5M | 4.5% | 5.0M | 1.15 |
2 | NVDA | Nvidia Corp | 167.02 | 7.0% | 20.3M | 4.6% | 3.9M | 0.57 |
3 | SPY | S&P 500 SPDR | 647.24 | 7.4% | 18.1M | 1.7% | 10.1M | 1.00 |
4 | $VIX | CBOE Volatility Index | 15.55 | 7.6% | 12.8M | 1.9% | 1.8M | 0.21 |
5 | IWM | Russell 2000 ETF | 237.77 | 7.8% | 12.1M | 0.4% | 1.7M | 1.71 |
6 | QQQ | Nasdaq 100 ETF | 576.06 | 7.7% | 9.6M | 7.3% | 4.9M | 1.15 |
7 | HYG | High Yield Bond ETF | 80.87 | 9.4% | 9.0M | 12.0% | 592K | 4.22 |
8 | TSLA | Tesla Inc | 350.84 | 8.0% | 7.9M | 1.4% | 4.0M | 0.63 |
9 | EEM | Emerging Markets ETF | 50.45 | 6.0% | 7.0M | 2.9% | 106K | 0.66 |
10 | AAPL | Apple Inc | 177.41 | 7.3% | 6.9M | 2.4% | 3.4M | 0.68 |
11 | MSFT | Microsoft Corp | 345.50 | 6.5% | 6.2M | 2.7% | 2.0M | 0.48 |
12 | AMZN | Amazon.com Inc | 196.23 | 6.9% | 5.9M | 3.2% | 2.8M | 0.55 |
13 | META | Meta Platforms | 317.09 | 7.1% | 5.3M | 1.2% | 2.0M | 0.58 |
14 | AMD | AMD Inc | 112.71 | 6.7% | 5.0M | 2.8% | 2.0M | 0.74 |
15 | GOOGL | Alphabet Class A | 134.95 | 6.3% | 4.8M | 1.5% | 1.5M | 0.59 |
16 | BAC | Bank of America | 34.92 | 5.9% | 4.4M | 1.6% | 580K | 0.97 |
17 | JPM | JPMorgan Chase | 157.28 | 6.4% | 4.2M | 1.9% | 620K | 1.10 |
18 | SMH | Semiconductors ETF | 207.93 | 5.7% | 3.9M | 3.3% | 190K | 5.81 |
19 | INTC | Intel Corp | 39.63 | 5.8% | 3.7M | 2.2% | 430K | 1.03 |
20 | TLT | 20Y Treasury Bond ETF | 92.48 | 6.1% | 3.6M | 2.7% | 240K | 1.82 |
This table shows the 20 listed options with the highest total open interest, combining calls and puts. Open interest data reflects active outstanding contracts and offers insights into market liquidity, sentiment, and positioning.
What the columns mean (short version):
Last = Last traded price of the underlying
IV Rank = Implied volatility rank (0–100 scale)
Total OI = Combined open interest for puts and calls
1M OI % Chg = Change in total open interest over the past month
Options Vol = Daily trading volume in options
P/C Vol = Put/Call volume ratio (based on daily volume)
For more detail, see the full glossary at the bottom of this article.
Based on the top 100 by open interest
Several stocks posted sharp increases in option interest this week, including Marvell (MRVL), CrowdStrike (CRWV), and PDD, each with double-digit OI gains. That often points to growing institutional attention, either for speculation or hedging.
On the volatility side, Kenvue (KVUE) and PG&E (PCG) show the highest implied volatility ranks, meaning the market is paying up for protection or anticipating key developments.
Finally, some names stand out for their extreme put-to-call ratios. SMH, HYG, and CORZ all show heavy put activity—suggesting traders are positioning defensively. In contrast, ultra-low ratios in WBD and GRAB hint at speculative call interest.
Based on the top 100 by open interest
Volatility expectations remain split. Some names—WULF, SMH, and HTZ—show near-zero implied volatility rank, suggesting traders expect little short-term movement.
At the same time, high put-to-call volume in SMH, HYG, and CORZ points to active hedging. This often reflects concern over rates, credit risk, or sector-specific volatility.
Semiconductors continue to dominate option flow. With NVDA, MRVL, and SMH among the top in OI and volatility, this sector remains a key area of institutional focus.
This week’s option activity paints a mixed picture. Index-level open interest remains dominant, but pockets of strong activity—especially in semiconductors—signal where traders see opportunity and risk. Adobe’s pre-earnings setup is particularly notable, with expensive volatility pricing in a wide move. Meanwhile, defensive positioning in credit and tech suggests some traders are bracing for bumps ahead.
For investors, options continue to offer clues—not just about sentiment, but about how markets are preparing for what’s next.