Morning Brew September 9 2025

Good morning!

The level of U.S. employment for the 12 months through March could be slashed by between 400,000 and 1 million jobs. Last year, this data point, where the correction amounted to 600,000 fewer jobs created, was seen as the trigger for the 50 basis point rate cut the Fed undertook in September.

Heading into the data, a rate cut by the Fed next week is fully priced in, with 90% in favor of 25 basis points and 10% for 50 basis points based on interest rate futures. By year-end, traders are seeing 71 basis points worth of cuts. These numbers will need watching for their market impact.

The S&P 500 rose 0.2%, the Nasdaq 0.45% to an all-time high, and the Dow +0.25%. The GER40 is meandering around 23,800, weighed by worries about the state of the German economy and spillovers from France. The S&P 500 is up about 10% in 2025, and the Nasdaq 13%.

Robinhood Markets and AppLovin rose more than 10% on joining the S&P 500 effective September 22.

Gold rose above the 3,650 resistance, and Silver is at 41.45 – up 39.30% and 43.5% this year. The USD Index is down.

Despite worries about France, EUR/USD rises to 1.1775, GBP/USD to 1.3580, and USD/JPY to 146.85. The USD Index is 97.27. US 10-Year yields are 4.04, and 30-Year yields are 4.70.

Headlines:

• French PM Francois Bayrou is expected to tender his resignation today as prime minister after parliament was against his austerity plans.
• UK retail sales grew 2.9% year-on-year in August 2025, the strongest in four months, exceeding July's 1.8% and forecasts of 2%.
• Germany's trade surplus shrank to EUR 14.9 billion in July 2025 from EUR 15.4 billion in June, the smallest since October 2024, as exports fell more than imports. Exports dropped 0.6% to EUR 130.2 billion, with sales to non-EU countries down 4.5%, including a 7.9% decrease to the US.
• Oil steadied as Saudi price cuts stoked demand worries. WTI held above $62 after a 0.6% rise; Brent stayed near $66. Saudi Aramco will lower Asia OSPs next month after OPEC+ kept restoring supply for October.
• Israel's military on Tuesday ordered Gaza City residents to evacuate ahead of a new offensive.
• Argentina’s president Milei suffered a massive defeat in a local election , and the stock index fell 12%.

Please find Koen’s recap and outlook here: Weekly market recap & what's ahead - 8 September 2025

Charu comments on the Apple event tonight:

Investors don’t need another #upgrade cycle. A thinner #iPhone, better camera, or longer battery life won’t move the needle. What they’re watching for is a #supercycle - a new wave of demand and monetization that can re-accelerate revenue and #earnings growth, and justify Apple’s lofty 32x valuation. So far, Apple has built the world’s most valuable ecosystem by locking in 3 billion iPhones sold. But for the next leg higher, it may need to prove that #AI on-device can be as transformative as the iPhone once was. Growth can also come from smart #pricing. If Apple quietly makes 256GB the new base storage for the Pro models, average selling prices go up without big sticker shock.Is tonight just another product launch, or the start of Apple’s next S-curve?

Tuesday, September 9:

• BLS Adjustment
• Apple Event
• Earnings: Oracle, SailPoint Technologies, GameStop, Oriental Culture Holding LTD, FuelCell Energy, Core & Main, Designer Brands, Korn Ferry, Cognite

Wednesday, September 10:

• China: CPI & PPI for August
• Sweden GDP, Norway & Denmark CPI
• U.S.: Producer Price Index

Thursday, September 11:

• Eurozone: Rate Decision
• U.S.: Jobless Claims, CPI

Friday, September 12:

• UK GDP
• U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment