Morning Brew September 29 2022
Senior Relationship Manager
Risk sentiment received a boost yesterday as yields came under pressure. The Bank of England opted for Yield curve control and there were some dovish comments out of the fed. Also, after 6 down days buyers of equities stepped in to pick up some shares. Volume was above average on US exchanges and US Indexes gained app 2%. Apple fell on a Bloomberg report that the company halted plans to boost production on low demand while Amazon could rise on an expansion into wellness business
Porsche AG shares will list on exchange today after Volkswagen priced shares at the top end of the announced range.
Lots of volatility again in FX where the pound had a strong day initially hitting the 1.0915 before falling to now 1.0778. EURUSD Also traded a range of more than 200 pips from 0.9530 to 0.9750 to now trade at 0.9660.
The USD Index dropped from 114.80 yesterday to 112.55 and is now at 113.50. Gold as well as silver rose sharply and have now fallen to 1642 and 18.60.
These sharp moves prove extreme uncertainty among market participants and also a willingness to step into risk at any sign of hope. We are heading into a very interesting Q4.
Continue to watch for any central bank or political comments that can cause sharp moves at any point in time, expected volatilities are double and more of the normal levels.
Thursday, Sep 29
US: Jobless claims (weekly)
US: GDP (Q2, 3rd)
HK: Trade data (Aug)
UK: Mortgage Data (Aug)
Eurozone: Economic, Industrial & Services Confidence (Sep)
Germany: HICP (Sep, flash)
Spain: HICP (Sep, flash)
Friday, Sep 30
US: Personal Income & Spending (Aug)
US: PCE & Core PCE (Aug)
US: Chicago PMI (Sep)
US: U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Sep, final)
US: U of Michigan 5-10-year Inflation Expectations (Sep, final)
Japan: Unemployment Rate (Aug)
Japan: Industrial Production (Aug)
Japan: Retail Sales (Aug)
Japan: Housing Starts (Aug)
Japan: Consumer Confidence Index (Sep)
China: NBS Manufacturing & Non-manufacturing PMIs (Sep)
China: Caixin China Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
HK: Retail Sales (Aug)
India: RBI Policy Meeting (Sep)
UK: GDP (Q2, 2nd)
France: HICP (Sep, flash)
Germany: Unemployment (Sep)
Eurozone: HICP (Sep, flash)
Latest Market Insights
Q4 Outlook 2022: Winter is coming
- Winter is coming to the financial markets as central banks are tightening their grip. How spring will look is still a question.
European energy crisis: it will get worse before it gets betterThe winter in Europe will be tough, but whether the result is political chaos or sustainable, innovative solutions is still undecided.
A difficult and volatile quarter awaitsAs the year draws to an end, commodities continue to be at centre stage of the world with growth pockets political uncertainty.
The bright side: crises drive innovationThe positive spin on crises is that they come with solutions. It is worrisome that deglobalisation may be a response to this crisis.
Green transformation in China: renewable energy and beyondGoing green, China needs to span numerous energy sources to ensure stability, as every source comes with a challenge.
Asia: Intermittent solutions, but a faster renewable adoption curveAsian energy supply is being squeezed. This and the adoption of renewables may change the investment sentiment in the region.
FX: A Fed thaw needed to deliver a sustained USD turn lowerThe US Dollar can keep momentum when the Federal Reserve continues to tighten, leaving the rest to play to their drum.
Autumn can become ugly for equities and bond holders. Comfort for Dollar longsTechnical analysis suggests that equities could face a tough Q4 as could fixed income. US Dollar positions could provide some upside.
The next stock market sector to watch, with stocks going nuclearAs the world scrambles to find affordable, sustainable energy, nuclear is getting attention from politicians and investors alike.
The crypto space is getting cold when the hype disappearsCryptocurrencies face a winter of their own as retail investors and governments are asking tough questions.