Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew September 28 2023

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Nervous markets remain - how will we start to Q4?

Good Morning

Yesterday equities changed only slightly in the end: The Dow Jones fell 67 points, or 0.2%, to 33,550 the S&P 500 gained 1 point, or 0.02%, at 4,275 and the Nasdaq Composite rose 29points, or 0.22%, to 13,093.

Volumes were fairly high at 10.9 billion shares vs the average of 10.2. With rising oil, energy stocks were among the strongest.

10 year yields rose to 4.6% and The Bund Future is trading at the lowest since 2011 and the spread between the German and the Italian 10 year bonds is approaching ECB intervention level again with nearly 2%.

EURUSD is testing the 1.05 as we speak, GBPUSD is at 1.2142, USDJPY 14935 Gold and Silver sold off yesterday to 1885 and 22.50. Oil remained strong but the good old trader rule that Gold follows Oil and Silver follows Gold failed.

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy on Wednesday rejected a stopgap funding bill bringing the US even closer to its fourth partial shutdown in a decade.

UBS was under pressure yesterday as the U.S. Department of Justice stated it was stepping up investigations into CS Violations of sanctions against Russia. Shares were temporarily halted after they fell nearly 8% before recovering to a minus of 3.3%.

Donald Trump stated, it was not important if the UAW secured a favorable deal in talks with America's biggest carmakers because the shift to electric vehicles would soon make them obsolete.

Shares in China Evergrande have been suspended, making a liquidation of the company more likely.

VW had to stop production due to an IT issue but could resolve the  issue over night

The Federal Reserve has won the near-term battle against inflation, but interest rates are likely to stay higher for longer according to Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan

Today, EU Consumer confidence, German Inflation, US GDP will be the key data points, after market close, Jerome will speak. In the near future, there should be comments out of the ECB as a verbal intervention and any progress in the labeor disputes in the US as well as the debt ceiling can have a massive impact.

That aside, overall sentiment will be key: Will yields continue to rise?

Upcoming Events:

- Data Australia Retail Sales, EU Consumer Confidence, DE CPI, US GDP, Initial Jobless Claims,

- Data Japan CPI, UK GDP, Swiss KOF; DE unemployment, EU HICP, US PCE, University of Michigan



Physically Settled Futures

  • GCV3, MGCV3, ZLV3, ZMV3 will expire 28 Sep 2023 at 15:00 GMT
  • SBV3, HOv3, RBV3 will expire 29 Sep 2023 at 15:00 GMT


    Expiring CFDs

  • HK50SEP23 will expire 28 Sep 2023 at 02:00 GMT
  • SINGAPORESEP23 will expire 28 Sep 2023 at 02:00 GMT
  • OILUKNOV23 will expire 29 Sep 2023 at 15:00 GMT



Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

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  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

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  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

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  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

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