Erik Erik Erik

Morning Brew September 19 2022

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Welcome to Central Bank Week


Good Morning

Welcome to Central Bank Week

On Wednesday, the FOMC will release it`s rate decision and outline it`s considerations in the press conference. On Thursday the Fed will be followed by the Swiss national Bank and the Bank of England. What is expected?

Fed:  +0.75% with 79% Probability, 1% with 21% probability

SNB: +0.75% with 60% Probability, 1% with 40% probability

BoE: +0.5% with 57% Probability, 0.75% with 43% probability

Ahead of the FOMC there are few significant economic releases, the Japanese and the Canadian CPI would need to surprise to have a real impact, as all eyes are on the Fed.

Today the UK will say goodbye to Queen Elisabeth II and markets will be closed.

Stocks lost heavily last week, the S&P lost 4.77%, the Dow Jones 4.14%, and he Nasdaq 5.48%. the GER40 looks like it will test the 12400 support. We are currently at 12720.

The USD Index is trading at 110, GBPUSD just below 1.14, EURUSD below parity and the Yen at 143.35. Gold and Silver have found some support, Gold at 1660 to trade at 1665, Silver could gain from below 19 to 19.40.

Worries that the central banks will hike too aggressively into a recession seem to drive equities lower while FX traders are uncertain in the short term. Goldman Sachs answers the question on how high rates will go with: "Our answer is high enough to generate a tightening in financial conditions that imposes a drag on activity sufficient to maintain a solidly below-potential growth trajectory." They see the  Fed to hike 75 basis points this week and 50  November and December.

U.S. President Joe Biden said U.S forces would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion

 FedEX tumbled 21.4% on Friday. 

VW is seeing a valuation of Porsche at €76 bio, let us see if an IPO of a luxury car maker is a great idea in a recession

Expiries

        Physically Settled Futures:

CADUSD - Sep 2022 (CDU2), E-micro CAD/USD - Sep 2022 (MCDU2) will expire 19th Sep 15:00 GMT

Light Sweet Crude Oil (WTI) - Oct 2022 (CLV2) will expire 20th Sep 15:00 GMT

Expiring CFDs:

PLATINUMOCT22 will expire 21st Sep 15:00 GMT

 

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
Beethovenstrasse 33
CH-8002
Zurich
Switzerland

Contact Saxo

Select region

Switzerland
Switzerland

All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law.

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.