Quarterly Outlook
Q3 Investor Outlook: Beyond American shores – why diversification is your strongest ally
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
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Morning Brew September 18 2025
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Fed cuts with two more cuts likely
A strange Fed Day indeed:
Growth projections are higher, inflation forecast is higher than in June while the unemployment forecast is lower, nevertheless the fed cut rates by 25 bps with a strong hint at more to come.
The most interesting comment by Jerome Powell was his stressing the extraordinary combination of a weak labor market and high inflation (caused by the Trump administration)
Equities traded nervously and ended mixed: the Dow up 0.6%, the S&P down 0.1%, the Nasdaq down 0.3% Nvidia lost on regulatory issues in China, Lyft gained on launching autonomous taxis next year while the news weighed on Uber. Volumes were massive as was to be expected at nearly 19 bio shares. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said that Washington and Beijing "have larger agendas to work out" and
Yields are slightly higher than yesterday, the 10`s are at 4.07, the USD Index gained to 97.254 as EURUSD falls to 1.1790, GBP 1.36, USDJPY 147.40. Gold and Silver are weaker at 3650 and 41.30.
Technically both precious metals are due for a correction and or consolidation with initial key supports at 3555 and 40.70.
Today we expect the Bank of England, the US Philly Fed and the usual initial jobless rate, over night or early tomorrow morning the Bank of Japan rate decision, the BoJ does not schedule the time for the release. Donald Trump and Keir Starmer are meeting in London today.
Key driver should be on digesting yesterday’s rate decision and comments around it but the usual risk factors remain so trade carefully as usual
Ruben put out a guide for investing in cybersecurity: Smart tech, smarter security: a cybersecurity guide for investors
Key points:
- Long runway: AI, cloud, and new rules keep cybersecurity a durable theme
- Watch: recurring revenue growth, customer retention, and add-on adoption
- Main risks: execution missteps, hyperscaler bundles squeezing pricing, and rich valuations
Thursday Sept 18
- Norway Rate decision
- UK Rate Decision
- US Philly Fed & Initial Jobless rate
Friday Sept 19
- Quadruple Witching Friday
- Trump Xi phonecall
- Japan CPI
- UK Retail Sales
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
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Quarterly Outlook
Q3 Macro Outlook: Less chaos, and hopefully a bit more clarity
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
After the chaos of Q2, the quarter ahead should get a bit more clarity on how Trump 2.0 is impacting... -
Quarterly Outlook
Upending the global order at blinding speed
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ... -
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Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
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Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
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Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
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Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
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China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
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Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy