Morning Brew September 12 2025

Good morning!

The CPI yesterday and the initial jobless claims confirmed there is nothing standing in the way of a cut by the US Central Bank next week. The only remaining question is 25 or 50 basis points. Traders are leaning towards the 25 basis points with a probability of 90%. This was enough to push equities higher, with the S&P 500 up 0.85%, the Nasdaq up 0.72%, and the Dow up 1.36%. We remain at record levels.

Top stocks to watch yesterday were Tesla, Micron, Centene, and Warner Bros on the positive side, while Oracle lost 6.5% in profit-taking. Volumes were a massive 18 billion shares traded.

The massive round of central bank rate decisions starts next Wednesday:

• Sept 17: USA, Canada & Indonesia
• Sept 18: UK, Norway, Brazil
• Sept 19: Japan
• Sept 23: Sweden, Hungary
• Sept 24: Czechia
• Sept 25: Switzerland

Heading into the cycle, the USD is weak: the USD Index fell from above 98 to 97.62, and the US 10-year yield is testing the 4%. EUR/USD is 1.1730, GBP/USD is 1.3550, and USD/JPY is 147.45. Gold recovered to 3655 after showing some nervousness yesterday, Silver broke above 42! Bitcoin is higher again at 115k.

The shooting of Charlie Kirk reminds us that we are in the most sustained period of U.S. political violence since the 1970s, according to Reuters. It has documented more than 300 cases of politically motivated violent acts across the ideological spectrum since supporters of Trump attacked the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021.

Microsoft and OpenAI announced an agreement that would allow OpenAI to proceed to restructure itself into a for-profit company. Former Brazilian President Bolsonaro was sent to jail for 27 years after being convicted of plotting a coup to remain in power after losing the 2022 election.

Charu wrote a very interesting piece on India, highlighting the country's massive opportunities and severe risks: Why India still matters despite tariffs and tensions

Today will be one of those awkward Fridays without data, and it will either be very calm or erratic. Impulse for erratic moves would likely come from the White House or any of the other political hotspots like France, the Middle East, or the Eastern NATO border.

Don't be complacent and trade safely.

Friday, September 12:

• UK GDP
• U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment