Morning Brew September 10 2025

Good morning!

The correction of the BLS data came as high as feared and let equities rise: S&P 500 +0.27%, Nasdaq +0.37%, Dow +0.43%. All three indexes hit record levels. Nebius rose almost 50% after signing a deal with Microsoft, while rival CoreWeave jumped 7%. JPMorgan rose 1.7% after a strong outlook, but Apple failed to excite traders with its product presentation and fell by 1.5%. Oracle gained 28% after reporting earnings slightly below expectations but announced that they expect its cloud infrastructure revenue to surpass $500 billion.

The labor market correction failed to shift the rate expectation to 50 bps; we are still at 95% in favor of a 25 bps cut next week. The USD Index rose, and precious metals corrected. EUR/USD is at 1.1710, weighed by the unstable situation in France. USD/JPY and GBP/JPY are at 147.75 and 1.3530, respectively. Gold is at 3,640, and Silver is at 41.05.

Jacob comments on Oracle: Oracle’s mic drop moment: from cloud laggard to AI market darling.

In other headlines:

• Poland shot down Russian drones in its airspace.

• Israel takes out Hamas leadership in Qatar.

• Donald Trump is asking the EU to impose tariffs of up to 100% against China to pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin.

• Sebastien Lecornu has been named Prime Minister of France, the fifth in less than two years. France is expecting nationwide protests today and has mobilized 80k police to keep control.

• A federal judge on Tuesday temporarily blocked President Donald Trump from removing Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook.

• Novo Nordisk will cut 9000 jobs or 11% of it`s workforce.

Today, focus will be on the PPI ahead of tomorrow's CPI release, as the last possible shift in the rate path. There would have to be a massive surprise to alter the expectation for next week's rate decision but may well alter the medium path. Goldman Sachs estimates that more than 80% of the tariff bill is footed by the US Consumer, that should have an impact on Inflation at one point.

The Epstein stories were very prominent on social media again yesterday, and in combination with the Lisa Cook ruling, may cause some backlash from the US president.

• China: CPI & PPI for August
• Sweden GDP, Norway & Denmark CPI
• U.S.: Producer Price Index

Thursday, September 11:

• Eurozone: Rate Decision
• U.S.: Jobless Claims, CPI

Friday, September 12:

• UK GDP
• U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment