Morning Brew October 29 2025

Good Morning,

US stocks advanced on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 increasing by 0.3%, the Dow going up by 180 points, and the Nasdaq growing by 0.8%, all achieving new peaks in anticipation of a 25 basis point reduction by the Federal Reserve. The rally was led by AI and major tech companies: Microsoft rose 2.3% due to a significant agreement with OpenAI, while Nvidia jumped 5% following a $1 billion investment from Nokia, boosting chip demand. Solid earnings from outside the tech sector provided additional support—UPS skyrocketed 8.1% on strong results and job cuts, and UnitedHealth climbed 1.6% after raising its 2025 forecast., Amazon increased by 1.4% on announcing 14,000 job cuts

UBS Announced great results letting stocks rise 4% premarket, Mercedes operating profit is down 60+% but the stock is expected to rise app 3%

Great Article from Charu on the repositioning of Nvidia: Nvidias new playbook From chips to AI partnerships | Saxo

Key points:
Nvidia is building the full AI stack — compute, connectivity, and applications — not just hardware.

• Strategic alliances in telecom, robotaxi, healthcare, and enterprise AI point to a wider market footprint and a push toward long-term, recurring revenue.
• Growth prospects stay strong as the company remains central to the AI infrastructure boom, but faces margin, policy, and competition risks.

The Dollar Index fell to 98.65 on Tuesday amid US-China trade discussions, with plans to exchange tariff reductions for chemical export controls. US data showed a drop in consumer confidence and modest job growth

Gold and Silver started the day weak and had a rather spectacular reversal. Silver lost all the way to 45.50 -  app 4%  before rising back to above 47, now 47.80. Gold traded to below 3900 to recover to 3977 and to above the level again. This certainly makes it interesting again.

From today we are entering a massively important three days for traders and investors:

1. 4 Key central Banks
2. 5 Mag 7 earnings
3. Trump meets Xi tomorrow
4. US Data
5. Month end for a crazy month

The Kickoff is the Canadian rate decision today at 13:30 CET followed by the US rate decision at 19:00 CET, Powells speech is 19:30 CET and the earnings of Microsoft, Google and  Meta between 21:00 to 22:00. Remember you are able to trade US Stocks until 22:00 using the extended trading hour functionality.

For the FOMC, Reuters is calculing a probability of 99.9% there will be a cut of 25 bps so the focus will be on Powells speech for further guidance. An interesting question is how much the lockdown affects the feds ability to read the economy.

Heading into the Trump / Xi summit it is noteworthy sources report the first Chinese purchases of US Soy Beans this year.

Manage your risk, consider using options for opportunistic bets and hedges and take the time to consider what happens if you are wrong, not only what happens when you are wrong…

Trade safely.

Wednesday, Oct 29   Australia CPI  Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting - Bank of Canada Rate Decision

Microsoft, Google, Meta, Verizon, Boeing, Caterpillar, Etsy, Kraft Heinz, ADP, Chipotle, Starbucks

Thursday, Oct 30      Swiss KOF, DE Unemployment & CPI EU GDP, U.S. Q3 GDP (Advance) - Eurozone GDP (Q3, advance) - Eurozone Unemployment Rate (Sep) - ECB Meeting - Japan Unemployment Rate Bank of Japan Meeting

Apple, Amazon, Coinbase, Reddit, Roku, Cloudflare, Lilly, Merck, Comcast Shell

Friday, Oct 31           EU Inflation, U.S. PCE  - U.S. Chicago PMI (Oct) - Canada GDP (Aug) - Eurozone CPI (Oct, preliminary) - U.K. Nationwide House Prices (Oct)

Exxon, Linde, CBOE