Morning Brew October 27 2025

Good Morning,

Equities surged to record highs on Friday, supported by a softer-than-expected inflation print and strong corporate earnings. This may turn out to be the last CPI release for some time, as data collection is expected to be disrupted by the ongoing lockdown.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both gained around 2% last week, marking their largest weekly increases since August. The US500 closed at 6,789, while the Dow Jones finished at 47,190. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei broke through the 50,000 level for the first time, driven by optimism surrounding potential stimulus measures and renewed trade discussions.

Company Highlights:

• Coinbase Global jumped 9.8% after JPMorgan upgraded the stock to overweight from neutral.
• Ford rallied 12.2% following a strong earnings beat in Q3.
• So far, 87% of companies have surpassed EPS expectations, and 83% have outperformed on revenue.

Commodities:
After a nine-week winning streak, gold and silver closed slightly lower but held off their lows, finishing at 4,111 and 48.60, respectively. This morning, they are trading near 4,080 and 48.30. Bitcoin climbed to $115,000, and Ethereum reached 4,228.

FX
The EUR/USD remains steady at 1.1625, GBP/USD trades around 1.3320, and USD/JPY has broken above 153.00.

Looking Ahead – A High-Risk Week Ahead:
From Wednesday to Friday, the markets face major potential catalysts:

• G7 Central Bank Meetings: Rate decisions from the US, Canada, ECB, and Bank of Japan. Markets see a 97% chance of a US rate cut and 82% for Canada, while the ECB (98%) and BoJ (80%) are expected to hold steady.
• Earnings Season: Results from five of the Magnificent Seven are due with Apple Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta - This is 15 Trillion in market cat in one week!!
• Economic Data: Key US and EU inflation figures will be released.

Global Developments:
President Donald Trump is traveling through Asia this week and will meet President Xi on Thursday. Meanwhile, the US government shutdown has entered week four, severely impacting travel, with 8,000 flights delayed yesterday alone.

Market strategist Scott B. Essent expects the current tariff truce with China to be extended beyond its November 10 expiration, along with a delay in China’s rare earth export restrictions and renewed soybean purchases. China, however, is conducting military drills ahead of the summit.

Elsewhere, Argentina’s President Javier Milei’s party scored a midterm election victory. In North America, tensions rose after a Canadian ad featuring Ronald Reagan reportedly angered President Trump, prompting him to end trade talks and impose an additional 10% tariff.

Military activity is also increasing in the Caribbean, with the US deploying the Gerald Ford carrier group to the region.

Bottom Line:
This week brings considerable event risk—central bank actions, earnings, and geopolitical developments are all in focus. Beyond the near term, rising global debt levels will remain an important structural concern for the US, Europe, and beyond.

Given the unpredictability under the Trump administration, it’s fair to say we also face our share of “unknown unknowns.” Stay disciplined and trade safely.

Monday, Oct 27         DE, IFO Index U.S. Durable Goods Orders (Sep, preliminary)
Keurig DrPepper, Bed Bath & Beyond, Whirlpool

Tuesday, Oct 28        U.S. Consumer Confidence (Oct)
PayPal, Booking, Electronic Arts, UPS, Visa, HSBC, JetBlue

Wednesday, Oct 29   Australia CPI  Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting - Bank of Canada Rate Decision
Microsoft, Google, Meta, Verizon, Boeing, Caterpillar, Etsy, Kraft Heinz, ADP, Chipotle, Starbucks

Thursday, Oct 30      Swiss KOF, DE Unemployment & CPI EU GDP, U.S. Q3 GDP (Advance) - Eurozone GDP (Q3, advance) - Eurozone Unemployment Rate (Sep) - ECB Meeting - Japan Unemployment Rate Bank of Japan Meeting

Apple, Amazon, Coinbase, Reddit, Roku, Cloudflare, Lilly, Merck, Comcast Shell

Friday, Oct 31           EU Inflation, U.S. PCE  - U.S. Chicago PMI (Oct) - Canada GDP (Aug) - Eurozone CPI (Oct, preliminary) - U.K. Nationwide House Prices (Oct)

Exxon, Linde, CBOE