Quarterly Outlook
Q4 Outlook for Investors: Diversify like it’s 2025 – don’t fall for déjà vu
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
Trade tensions once again directing broad sentiment with the U.S. exerting trade friction with China, Canada and Russia. The delayed Sept US CPI numbers came in slightly softer than expected on Friday. Earnings season has so far been reasonably strong which has helped markets ride out geopolitical risks and trade tensions. Precious metals finally took a breather this week, markets now await consolidation. Japan voted in its first female Prime Minister, spurring on the Nikkei. UK inflation came in softer than expectations giving sterling and gilt yields a relief. Meanwhile new meme stock Beyond Meat rocketed at one point up over 1300% on the week as it was added to the Meme ETF. More below on this week’s key stories.
New Russia sanctions push crude prices
Crude prices jumped after the U.S. imposed sanctions on Russia’s largest oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil, a dramatic policy shift aimed at pressuring Moscow by choking revenue from two of the Kremlin’s key cash generators. Refineries in China and India will now be forced to seek alternative suppliers to avoid exclusion from the Western banking system and dollar access.
Commodities Weekly: From glut to disruption - sanctions lift energy as metal sectors diverge
The Gold and Silver rally gets checked
Gold and Silver experienced a forceful correction after a powerful nine-week rally that saw gold gain 31% and silver 45%. Beyond the firmer dollar, the main catalyst was softer Indian demand in the aftermath of Diwali. Silver rebounded from the USD 47.80 area of support, with gold buyers emerging just above USD 4000.
Gold and Silver correction to test the market's true strength
Tesla profit tumbles
Tesla shares fell as Q3 earnings missed expectations (Adj EPS $0.50 vs. Est. $0.54). Profits dropped by 37% to $1.4 bn on higher costs, tariffs and as the company lowers prices to stay competitive. Tesla also says focus remains on scaling core hardware business.
Tesla's earnings remind investors that gravity still applies
Netflix slides on tax hit
Netflix stock plunged -10% after the video streaming giant Q3 earnings that missed estimates. Despite 17% revenue growth to $11.51bn, adjusted EPS undershot at $5.87 vs $6.96 expected. The miss stemmed from a $169m one-time tax settlement in Brazil.
Netflix Q3 review
This weekend U.S. President Trump begins his diplomatic tour of Asia starting at the ASEAN leaders’ summit in KL. The Fed (Wednesday), ECB (Thursday) and BoJ (Thursday) all meet this week to set policy rates. Markets have priced a 25bps cut for the Fed and are expecting a hold from both ECB and BoJ. Earnings continue to roll in, big tech is the focus - Wednesday sees Meta, Alphabet and Microsoft, then Thursday has Apple and Amazon.