Market Quick Take – 24 October 2025

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: U.S. advanced on tech and energy strength. Europe rose with luxury and energy. Asia firm with Japan and Hong Kong higher into key policy and data
• Volatility: VIX cools to 17.3. Vol term-structure normalizes. Inflation & PMI data in focus
• Digital Assets: BTC >111k. ETH near 4k. CZ pardon lifts mood. Revolut gains MiCA license. ETF inflows firm
• Currencies: USD, Scandies remain firm, JPY weakens further
• Commodities: Strong week in energy offset precious metal weakness
• Fixed Income: US Treasury yield rebound ahead of US CPI release
• Macro events: Flash Oct. Eurozone PMI, US Sep. CPI

Macro headlines

• US President Trump said he is halting trade negotiations with Canada as he has been angered by an anti-tariff advertising campaign sponsored by the Canadian province of Ontario, which is airing ads in the US that include clips of President Ronald Reagan speaking against tariffs.
• Japan's CPI rose to 2.9% in September 2025 from 2.7% in August as expected, driven by higher electricity and gas prices. While price growth eased or stabilized across various sectors, education costs further decreased. Food prices rose 6.7%, slowing from 7.2%, with rice prices seeing the smallest yearly increase. Core inflation rose to 2.9%, aligning with expectations. BOJ's Hajime Takata renewed his call for an interest rate hike due to easing tariff concerns and progress toward the inflation target.
• US existing home sales rose 1.5% to an annualised rate of 4.06 million in September 2025, driven by lower mortgage rates and better housing affordability. Single-family home sales increased by 1.7%, while condos and co-ops held at 370,000. Sales rose in the Northeast, South, and West but declined in the Midwest. Inventory rose 1.3% to 1.55 million units. The median home price increased by 2.1% to $415,200, marking the 27th consecutive month of price gains. Year-on-year, sales rose 4.1%.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

US Government data are impacted by shutdowns and are likely to be delayed

0600 – UK Sep. Retail Sales
0715 – France Flash Oct. Manufacturing and Services PMI
0730 – Germany Flash Oct. Manufacturing and Services PMI
0800 – Eurozone Flash Oct. Manufacturing and Services PMI
0830 – UK Flash Oct. Manufacturing and Services PMI
1230 – US Sep. CPI
1345 – US Flash Oct. Manufacturing and Services PMI
1400 – US Final Oct. University of Michigan Sentiment

Earnings events

• Today: Procter & Gamble, HCA Healthcare, General Dynamics, Illinois Tool Works, ENI
• Next week: Mon: Cadence Design Systems, Waste Management, NXP Semiconductors; Tue: Visa, UnitedHealth, Novartis, HSBC, NextEra, Booking Holdings; Wed: Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Caterpillar, ServiceNow, Airbus, KLA, MercadoLibre; Thu: Apple, Amazon.com, Eli Lilly, Mastercard, Samsung, Merck, Shell; Fri: ExxonMobil, Abbvie, Chevron, Linde

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: The S&P 500 rose 0.6%, the Dow added 0.3%, and the Nasdaq gained 0.9% as megacap tech firmed and energy rallied with oil up on fresh U.S. sanctions on Russian producers. Nvidia +1.0%, Amazon +1.4%, Broadcom +1.2%, and Oracle +2.7% paced gains. Honeywell jumped 6.8% on strong results, while American Airlines climbed 5.6% on upbeat guidance. Tesla rebounded 2.3% after printing revenue of $28.1bn and an EPS miss at $0.50 as margins stayed pressured. After hours, Intel rose 7.7% on a beat (revenue $13.65bn, gross margin 40%, EPS $0.23) while Super Micro fell 7.0% after cutting Q1 sales guidance to $5bn, citing revenue timing.
• Europe: The STOXX 50 gained 0.5% and the STOXX 600 rose 0.4% as energy and earnings lifted the tape; London’s FTSE 100 added 0.7% to a record close. Luxury led with Kering up 8.7% on signs of Gucci stabilization, while SAP advanced 2.2%. Energy majors tracked the oil jump, with BP +3.7%, Repsol +3.3%, and Eni +3.0%. Offsetting, Roche slipped 3.2% after a weak update, and Dassault Systèmes tumbled 13% after cutting its revenue growth outlook. Focus turns to next week’s data run and remaining earnings.
• Asia: Regional tone was firmer on prior closes. Nikkei 225 +0.5% as tech momentum persisted; Hang Seng +0.7% to 25,968; CSI 300 +0.7%. Hong Kong leaders advanced, with Tencent +1.5%, Alibaba +1.7%, and BYD +1.0% as investors weighed U.S.–China headlines and oil’s surge. Taiwan was closed for a holiday. Attention stays on China’s policy signals and the Fed next week.

Volatility

• Markets steadied on Thursday, with the S&P 500 up 0.58% to 6,738 and the VIX easing to 17.3, showing less tension after the week’s earlier swings. Short-dated volatility also cooled, while the VIX9D dropped nearly 9.5%, suggesting traders are less anxious about immediate shocks. The pullback in gold and Treasuries hints that defensive positioning is lightening, though investors still watch inflation and PMI data due later today.
• The tone is calmer, but not complacent — options markets imply a ±39-point move (~0.6%) for the SPX today, keeping volatility expectations in check.

Digital Assets

• Crypto edged higher after a politically charged day. BTC rose above $111k and ETH near $3,980, extending modest gains as sentiment turned risk-on following Trump’s pardon of Binance founder CZ Zhao — a headline that sparked buying in BNB and lifted market mood. Meanwhile, Revolut’s new MiCA license underpins the sector’s regulatory progress in Europe.
• ETF flows remained firm, with IBIT +2.2% and ETHA +1.5%, while SOL, XRP, and ADA followed broader gains. Weekend trade could stay lively given these headlines and lighter liquidity.

Fixed Income

• US treasury yields rebounded yesterday amidst strong ongoing risk sentiment and ahead of today’s widely anticipated and delayed US September CPI release, with the benchmark 2-year treasury yield up a couple of basis points to 3.48%, while the benchmark 10-year treasury yield rebounded some five basis points back to the round 4.00% level.
• Japan’s yields were little changed within the recent choppy range below the cycle highs after the latest CPI release from Japan overnight.

Commodities

• The Bloomberg Commodity Index, tracking 24 major futures, is heading for a 1.8% weekly gain, lifting its year-to-date advance to 12.6% — and highest level in three years. A 2.5% weekly drop in precious metals (+56.7% YTD) was offset by broad sector gains, led by energy (+6.7%) posting its strongest week since June on crude, fuel, and natural gas strength. Diesel, crude, and cocoa top the leaderboard, while silver, gold, and platinum lag.
• Gold’s nine-week winning streak ended after Monday’s slump to USD 4,000 signaled a consolidation phase, triggered by lower post-Diwali demand. Focus now turns to today’s U.S. CPI and renewed geopolitical risk as U.S.-China trade talks begin ahead of a Trump–Xi meeting next Thursday. The rebound from support remains shallow, with USD 4,150 the level to watch to avoid another round of profit-taking.
• Crude is heading for a sharp weekly advance after U.S. sanctions on Russia’s two largest producers, which together export around 3 mb/d. Russian crude flows to India are set to plunge, while Chinese refiners have paused purchases. From testing USD 60 a week ago, Brent now trades above USD 65 as wrong-footed short sellers are forced out — and the feared supply glut may prove smaller than expected if sanctions persist.

Currencies

• The US dollar remains little changed after a choppy session within a tight range yesterday and ahead of today’s delayed September CPI figure. The JPY remains weak after Japan’s September CPI data was slightly softer than anticipated on one of the core measures. USDJPY trades not far below 153.00, eyeing the recent multi-month high at 153.27, while EURJPY trades not far from the recent cycle top of 177.94, the highest level since the introduction of the single currency decades ago.
• The Scandinavian currencies have continued their recent firming versus the euro, particularly the Norwegian krone as EURNOK fell briefly to the lowest level for the month below 11.59, eyeing the September low and low since June just below 11.54 on sharply firmer crude oil prices. EURSEK trades near 10.90, the low since June. The next major chart point is the 2025 low and low since early 2023 at 10.666.

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