Morning Brew November 6 2025

Good Morning,

I am not going to say passive investments came to the rescue again when there was a downturn early in a month – I will say though that equities recovered strongly at the tme of the months here regular savings plans usually invest.

A higher than expected payroll number and stronger service activity also aided.

The US 500 gained 0.4%, the Dow 0.5% and the Nasdaq 0.6%, 5 of the magnificent 7 were positive, Microsoft and Nvidia were detractors at 1.5% and 1.4%.  Super Micro Computer  lost 11.3% on  disappointing results. Palantir remains out of favor and gave up 2% more.

The ger40 rose back to 24k, Bitcoin rose to above 100k again to trade at 103k, the USD Index is testing the 100 to the downside.

EURUSD is above 1,15 again, GBPUSD is 1.3050 and USJPY 153.90. Gold and Slver revovered to 3996 and 48.40.

The Bank of England rate decision and comments around it are of great interest, the interst rate is twice as high as in the Euro Zone, at the same time the economy will have to withstand tax highs to achieve a workable budget and the inflation rate is too high even if the last reading was lower than feared.

The U.S. Supreme Court started deliberating the Trump tariffs and the progress will be closely watched.

Charu took a look at Tuesdays decline:

Is this the long-awaited tech reset?

• Markets sold off sharply across global equities, led by a broad pullback in AI-linked and tech names after months of relentless gains.
• AI valuations are under scrutiny. Earnings have generally held up, but investors are questioning whether growth can justify lofty valuations, especially amid renewed macro and policy uncertainty.
• A base case decline of 10–15% would reflect valuation compression toward the five-year average, while a bearish tail of 20–30% would likely require a new macro shock such as higher yields, stagflation fears, or an AI capital-spending slowdown.

US Household debt rose strongly in Q3, hitting a record of 18.6 Trillion, the quarterly increase was app 600 USD per American – a massive amount.
We are looking at another data uncertainty tomorrow, so far it looks like the Nonfarm Payroll may be released tomorrow – at least according to the schedule on Reuters , Bloomberg and the BLS Homepage but don`t bet on it yet.

With releases of limited importance, it could be a nice and calm day but these days, surprises are not unlikely to stay awake – the big topics are all still unresolved and relevant:

• Shutdown
  Trade
  Ukraine
  The Tech bubble

Thursday, November 6, 2025

• Bank of England Monetary Policy Meeting (7:00 UK time)
• Eurozone Retail Sales (September)
• Initial Jobless Claims (US weekly)
  AstraZeneca, Warner Bros. Moderna, thetradedesk, Airbnb

Friday, November 7, 2025

• US Nonfarm Payrolls
• US Unit Labour Costs QoQ Preliminary
• China Balance of Trade
  Constellation., Wendy`s,