Morning Brew Morning Brew November 4 2025

Good Morning,

After a fairly calm and mixed day with the Dow down 0.5%, S&P 500 up 0.2%, Nasdaq up 0.5%., this morning we are seeing some risk off sentiment without a clear trigger. It may well be the fact that Palantir failed to spark optimism despite beating expectations.

Palantir published great numbers and raised the outlook but in extended extended trading, the stock fell to 198 from 209.

Nvidia's stock price went up by 2.2% after President Trump announced that the company's most advanced AI microchips will be exclusively available to U.S. businesses and not sold to China or other countries.

Kimberly-Clark's stock dropped by 14.6% after it was announced that the company will purchase Tylenol maker, Kenvue, for over $40 billion. In contrast, Kenvue's stock increased by 12.3%.

The U.S. Supreme Court is scheduled to hear arguments about the legality of Trump's tariffs on Wednesday, but a decision is not expected until the end of the year.

OpenAI has signed a seven-year, $38 billion deal to buy cloud services from Amazon.com, in its first big push to power its AI ambitions after a restructuring last week. This is a further example of huge circular cash flows.

The Norwegian  sovereign wealth fund, the world's largest, announced  it would vote against O Elon Musk's proposed compensation package.

Fed speakers continue to argue their stances heading towards the December 10 meeting but without data it is difficult for hawks as well as doves to argue their cases well. The probability for a December cut is 65%. 10 year Yields hold just below 4.1%.

This morning, Most Indexes are about 1% lower: The US 500 6780, the US tech 100 NAS 25625 the GER40 23860. Gold -0.5% at 3985, Silver -1% at 47.60, Bitcoin -2% at 104.700. EURUSD is 1.1525, GBPUSD 1.3120 and USDJPY 153.60.

Ole wrote a comprehensive overview on Gold:

Gold: From euphoria to consolidation – The next leg looks like a 2026 story

• Gold’s extraordinary rally this year has entered a cooling phase as traders reassess how much of the 2025 narrative—rate cuts, fiscal stress, geopolitical hedging, and central bank demand—has already been priced in
• Two consecutive weekly losses following a nine-week surge that lifted prices more than 27% suggest the market is releasing pressure rather than reversing trend
• While near-term momentum has stalled, the fundamental reasons for holding gold remain intact—only the timing of the next advance in our opinion is uncertain.

Koen published a new format: The Saxo Weekly Market Compass

Markets closed out October on a cautiously upbeat note, with policy shifts and selective earnings driving sentiment. The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points and confirmed an end to quantitative tightening, while the U.S. and China struck a one-year truce on tariffs and rare earths. Tech results dominated market moves, exposing widening divergence across names. European equities held steady, Japan surged, and China struggled on weak PMIs. Gold hovered near USD 4,000, oil steadied, and Bitcoin slipped but stayed above USD 100k.

Wheat jumped higher on news that China will prurchase US Wheat for the first time this year.

Germany is looking at a record trade deficit with chaina on falling exports to China and rising imports.

Donald Trump endorsed Andrew Cuomo for mayor of New York City and threatened cut federal funding if Zohran Mamdani wins the mayoral election.

Food aid is becoming a tragedy do to the US Shutdown, millions of americans are in limbo as to when which amount will be received.

Tuesday, November 4, 2025

• Australia Rate Decision
  Uber, Shopify, Spotify, Pfizer, BP, Ferrari, AMD, Supermicro, Beyond Meat, Pinterest,.

Wednesday, November 5, 2025

• DE Industrial Orders
• Global PMI
  Novo Nordisk, McDonalds, Robingood, Applovin, Qualcomm, ARM, Snap,

Thursday, November 6, 2025

• Bank of England Monetary Policy Meeting (7:00 UK time)
• Eurozone Retail Sales (September)
• Initial Jobless Claims (US weekly)
  AstraZeneca, Warner Bros. Moderna, thetradedesk, Airbnb

Friday, November 7, 2025

• US Nonfarm Payrolls
• US Unit Labour Costs QoQ Preliminary
• China Balance of Trade
  Constellation., Wendy`s,