Morning Brew November 28 2025

Good Morning,

As we emerge from the Thanksgiving holiday, we anticipate a shortened trading day in the United States. U.S. stock markets will close early, and options will also expire earlier than usual, with trading ending at 1:00 PM EST, which is 7:00 PM Central European Time.

Due to an issue at CME Datacenters, trading in U.S. Index and FX Futures is currently halted worldwide.

With an 80% probability of a rate cut on December 10, 10-year yields have fallen to 4%. The USD Index is trading at 99.60, EUR/USD is at 1.1580, GBP/USD at 1.3215, and USD/JPY at 156.40. Gold and silver remain strong at 4185 and 54, respectively.

The release of the UK Budget has sparked concerns as it raises the Tax-to-GDP ratio to its highest level since World War II.

Following the attack on two National Guardsmen near the White House, Donald Trump announced plans to ban immigration from Third World countries, stating: "I will permanently pause migration from all Third World countries to allow the U.S. system to fully recover, terminate all of the millions of Biden illegal admissions, including those signed by Sleepy Joe Biden’s autopen, and remove anyone who is not a net asset to the United States."

He also mentioned that the U.S. will soon take action against Venezuelan drug traffickers on land.

Additionally, Putin is set to hold talks with Hungarian Prime Minister Orban today in Moscow.

Trade safely! Expect slow but possibly erratic markets today due to the CME outage and the shortened trading day. Let us hope for a successful December! Next week, we'll receive the first crucial U.S. datapoint after the lockdown—the PCE will be released on December 5th, just in time for the rate decision.

Scheduled Data for Friday, November 28:

• Japan CPI
• Swiss KOF & GDP
• European CPI

It's also Black Friday.