Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew November 13 2024

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  US CPI out today - Who cares?


Good morning,

It looks like the Trump Trade is facing a showdown between yields and stocks. Increased spending and less regulation boosts equities but also fuels inflation and causes rising yields. With the 2 year at 4.35 and the 10 year at 4.44, stocks seem to feel pressure, the US dollar gets boosted .

Today we are expecting the US Consumer Price Index at 14:30 CET. The CPI is seen at 2.6%, the Core at 3.3%. The big question will be if the focus will be on this data point of on any announcement by the Team Trump.

Donald Trump announced Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy will lead the Department of Government Efficiency, with the aim to "drive large scale structural reform, and create an entrepreneurial approach", Fox host Pete Hegseth will be Secretary of Defence. He is a vet having served in Afghanistan.

Fed speakers basically said the Fed was still somewhat restrictive but ready to act if necessary.

European gave up 2% as the ECB expressed worries, increased tariffs would hamper global growth, also Ford announced to cut working hours to every other week at the cologne facility. The Dax is seen at around 19000. The Nikkei also gives up 2%.

US indexes traded lower as well, the Dow lost 0.85%, the S&P 500 0.3% the Nasdaq 0.1% and the Russel gave up 1.8%. Volumes remained high at above 15 billion shares.

Tesla lost 6% but remains up 35% since the election, Amgen gave up 6% on possible issues with it`s weight loss drug.

The USD Index is trading at 106, EURUSD 1.0610, USDJPY 155, GBPUSD 1.2740 and Gold and Silver 2605 and 30.85. For now, the key supports in Gold and Silver seem to have held but the longer uptrend remains at risk is there is more downside.

Bitcoin it taking a breath at 86700 having looked above the 90k yesterday.

In this week’s Saxo Market Call, Søren Otto is joined by Chief Macro Strategist, John J. Hardy and Head of Fixed Income, Althea Spinozzi to take the temperature of the markets one week removed from the US election. They dive deep into how bond markets, Bitcoin craze and the newly called German election.

Listen to the full episode now or follow Saxo Market

Pls see the shortlist for the Trump Trade here

Highlights are: Transport & Logistics, Financials, Energy and small caps

Key events

Wednesday
- Data US CPI,
- Earnings:  Cisco,
- Logan, Musalem, Schmid, speak

Thursday
- Data Sweden CPI, EU GDP, US Initial Jobless claims, PPI
- Earnings: Disney, JD.com
- Barkin, Kugler, Powell speak

Friday
- Data JP GDP, UK GDP, US Retail Sales
- Earnings, Alibaba

 

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Upending the global order at blinding speed

    Quarterly Outlook

    Upending the global order at blinding speed

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ...
  • Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Quarterly Outlook

    Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Quarterly Outlook

    China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

The information on or via the website is provided to you by Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. (“Saxo Bank”) for educational and information purposes only. The information should not be construed as an offer or recommendation to enter into any transaction or any particular service, nor should the contents be construed as advice of any other kind, for example of a tax or legal nature.

All trading carries risk. Loses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Saxo Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information provided and shall not be responsible for any errors or omissions or for any losses or damages resulting from the use of such information.

The content of this website represents marketing material and is not the result of financial analysis or research. It has therefore has not been prepared in accordance with directives designed to promote the independence of financial/investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of financial/investment research.

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
The Circle 38
CH-8058
Zürich-Flughafen
Switzerland

Contact Saxo

Select region

Switzerland
Switzerland

All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law. 

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.