Morning Brew November 11 2024

Good morning,

Digest these levels: Bitcoin is trading at above 80.000 more than 100% off the lows this year! The S&P 500 is trading at 6010 against a 52-week low of 4315 and above 6000 for the first time ever. The Dow is at 44060.

The USD Index is trading at above 105 again and 10 year yields are at 4.30. Gold and Silver remain volatile above key support levels. EURUSD is 1.0706, USDJPY 153.35 and GBPUSD 1.2904.

Moves continue to be driven by the Trump Trade more than anything else, here are three very good articles by our strats team to try to make sense of it:

Weekly Stock Spotlight: Trump Victory Propels Small-Cap Surge and US Outperformance

John`s FX Update:

Client Positioning in Equities This is a new very good format highlighting shifts in our clients positioning after the election.

China`s Consumer Price Index as well as the Producer Price Index came lower than expected. The CPI came at 0.3% vs 0.4% expected the PPI at -2.9% vs -2.5% expected and the stimulus measures disappointed, Chinese and HK Equities are trading under pressure

In the coming week we are expecting a decent amount of economic data, some interesting  earnings and fed speakers but the elephant in the room is the Trump win of the presidency and the Trump Trade.

Any  details on personnel, policy and implementation have the potential to move markets. Focus will be on Trade and tariffs, the stance towards Europe, Ukraine and China, immigration and economic policies will have an immediate impact but remember that Trump will not take office and we are now buying rumors, not yet facts.

Elon Musk sees to take a very active role in the forefront of the transfer of power, he was apparently present during Trumps initial call with Selinski and is also making endorsements for political appointments.

Besides US Politics, Germany is looking at Snap elections and a date should become clear this week.

Tonight at 18:00 CET I have the pleasure to discuss basic Option strategies with Fabio, if you are looking for a basic intro, please join us https://www.youtube.com/@FinanzFabio/streams

Trade Safely!
Events this week: 

Tuesday

- Data Germany Inflation, ZEW, UK Employment,
- Earnings: Shopify, Home Depot, On, Spotify
- Waller, Barkin, Kashkari speak

Earnings:
Wednesday
- Data US CPI,
- Earnings:  Cisco,
- Logan, Musalem, Schmid, speak

Thursday
- Data Sweden CPI, EU GDP, US Initial Jobless claims, PPI
- Earnings: Disney, JD.com
- Barkin, Kugler, Powell speak

Friday
- Data JP GDP, UK GDP, US Retail Sales
- Earnings, Alibaba