Morning BrewMay 8 2025

Good morning,

• The NY Times suggests that DJT will announce a trade deal with the UK today, the time is expected to be 16 CET. With the BoE Rate decision at 13:02 CET (No Typo) , it will be an interesting day for the GBP.
• The Fed Held Rates steady but warns of uncertainty and risks of higher unemployment and inflation. The Year end rate expectation is unchanged after the FOMC at three cuts to 3.57.
• President Donald Trump's administration plans to rescind artificial intelligence chip curbs
• Tensions in Kashmir remain high as India carries out biggest strikes on Pakistan in decades
• Google sold off massively and closed 7% lower on reports by Apple that browser based search is being replaced by AI tools such as Chat GPT and Perplexity. Charu wrote an analysis on the topic: Alphabet’s Kodak moment? Why Google could lose its search dominance in the AI age
• Maersk maintains its 2025 outlook and beats estimates.
• German Industrial Production beats estimates significantly, the Monthly number was expected at 0.8% and came at 3%.

Equities took the rate decision well, overall and ended up with the  S&P 500 + 0.4%, Nasdaq 100 increased 0.3%, and the Dow advanced 297 points, the USD Index gained after the somewhat hawkish tones by Jerome Powell, EURUSD is atz 1.1300, GBPUSD 1.3315 and USDJPY 143.88. Traders of Gold and Silver need good nerves ans the recent development that the US session sells and the Asian buys holds true once again: Gold fell to 3360 yesterday, rose to 3410 in the early Asian session, now 3360 again, Silver fell to 32.25 last night, rose to 32.95 and is now 32.40. Copper lost on recession fears.

Today will be driven by news and technical levels, the US Indexes are meandering their  200 day averages and the Dax is toying with the all time highs. A break higher will likely trigger follow up buying and a rejection would weigh on sentiment.

The announcement scheduled in the Whitehouse should be watched carefully and all hints at what the expectations for the US /China summit in Geneva on Saturday.

• Thursday: Toyota, Shopify, Mercado Libre, ConocoPhillips, Nintendo, McKesson, Enel, Rheinmetall, Siemens Energy
• Friday: Enbridge