Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Morning Brew - May 31st
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Good Morning
Going in to the first week of June with the US and the UK on Holidays today.
The Chinese PMI came slightly lower than expected at 51.0 vs. 51.1 expected and drove the CSI 300 down by 0.4%.
Joe Biden's budget proposal comes at $6 trillion, roughly 50% higher than pre-COVID-19 federal spending.
There is little significant movement in Indexes with most stuck near highs and looking for the strength to break higher. The USD Index is again above the 90 level, the EURUSD at 1.22 and Cable at 1.4190. Bitcoin retreated to 34k and Gold and Silver are fairly strong at 1906 and 27.95.
Focus this week will be on the Nonfarm Payroll on Friday as an indication of Fed Policy going forward.
Safe Trading
Economic Events for the next few days:
Local Start Date | Local Time | Country/Region | Indicator Name | Period | Reuters Poll | Prior |
31 May 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | Industrial O/P Prelim MM SA | Apr | 4.1% | 1.7% |
31 May 2021 | 03:00 | China (Mainland) | NBS Manufacturing PMI | May | 51.1 | 51.1 |
31 May 2021 | 08:00 | Denmark | GDP QQ Prelim | Q1 | 0.7% | |
31 May 2021 | 08:00 | Denmark | GDP YY Prelim | Q1 | -1.5% | |
31 May 2021 | 08:00 | Denmark | Unemployment Rate | Apr | 4.1% | |
31 May 2021 | 09:00 | Turkey | GDP Quarterly YY | Q1 | 6.7% | 5.9% |
31 May 2021 | 09:00 | Switzerland | Official Reserves Assets CHF | Apr | 990,524.58M | |
31 May 2021 | 09:00 | Austria | GDP Growth QQ Final | Q1 | 0.2% | |
31 May 2021 | 11:00 | Italy | CPI (EU Norm) Prelim MM | May | 0.9% | |
31 May 2021 | 11:00 | Italy | CPI (EU Norm) Prelim YY | May | 1.0% | |
31 May 2021 | 12:00 | Portugal | GDP QQ Final | Q1 | -3.3% | |
31 May 2021 | 14:00 | Germany | CPI Prelim YY | May | 2.3% | 2.0% |
31 May 2021 | 14:00 | Germany | HICP Prelim YY | May | 2.5% | 2.1% |
31 May 2021 | 14:00 | India | GDP Quarterly YY | Q4 | 1.0% | 0.4% |
31 May 2021 | 15:00 | Israel | Interest Rate Decision | May | 0.10% | |
1 Jun 2021 | 02:30 | Japan | Jibun Bank Mfg PMI | May | 52.5 | |
1 Jun 2021 | 02:30 | South Korea | IHS Markit Mfg PMI | May | 54.6 | |
1 Jun 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Building Approvals | Apr | 17.4% | |
1 Jun 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Current Account Balance SA | Q1 | 14.5B | |
1 Jun 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Net Exports Contribution | Q1 | -0.1% | |
1 Jun 2021 | 03:45 | China (Mainland) | Caixin Mfg PMI Final | May | 51.7 | 51.9 |
1 Jun 2021 | 06:30 | Australia | RBA Cash Rate | Jun | 0.10% | 0.10% |
1 Jun 2021 | 07:00 | India | IHS Markit Mfg PMI | May | 52.0 | 55.5 |
1 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Nationwide house price mm | May | 2.1% | |
1 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Nationwide house price yy | May | 7.1% | |
1 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | Russia | Markit Mfg PMI | May | 50.4 | |
1 Jun 2021 | 08:15 | India | Cash Reserve Ratio | 4 Jun | ||
1 Jun 2021 | 08:15 | India | Repo Rate | 4 Jun | ||
1 Jun 2021 | 08:15 | India | Reverse Repo Rate | 4 Jun | ||
1 Jun 2021 | 09:00 | Turkey | Manufacturing PMI | May | 50.4 | |
1 Jun 2021 | 09:45 | Italy | Markit/IHS Mfg PMI | May | 60.7 | |
1 Jun 2021 | 09:50 | France | Markit Mfg PMI | May | 59.2 | |
1 Jun 2021 | 09:55 | Germany | Markit/BME Mfg PMI | May | 64.0 | |
1 Jun 2021 | 09:55 | Germany | Unemployment Chg SA | May | 9k | |
1 Jun 2021 | 09:55 | Germany | Unemployment Rate SA | May | 6.0% | 6.0% |
1 Jun 2021 | 10:00 | Euro Zone | Markit Mfg Final PMI | May | 62.8 | |
1 Jun 2021 | 10:30 | United Kingdom | Markit/CIPS Mfg PMI Final | May | 66.1 | |
1 Jun 2021 | 11:00 | Italy | GDP Final QQ | Q1 | -0.4% | |
1 Jun 2021 | 11:00 | Italy | GDP Final YY | Q1 | -1.4% | |
1 Jun 2021 | 11:00 | Turkey | ITO Istanbul Retail Prices | May | 1.01% | |
1 Jun 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | HICP Flash YY | May | 1.9% | 1.6% |
1 Jun 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | HICP-X F&E Flash YY | May | 0.8% | |
1 Jun 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | Unemployment Rate | Apr | 8.1% | 8.1% |
1 Jun 2021 | 14:00 | Brazil | GDP QQ | Q1 | 3.2% | |
1 Jun 2021 | 14:00 | Brazil | GDP YY | Q1 | -1.1% | |
1 Jun 2021 | 14:00 | New Zealand | Milk Auctions | 1 Jun, w/e | 4,150 | |
1 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | GDP QQ Annualized | Q1 | 9.6% | |
1 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | GDP MM | Mar | 0.4% | |
1 Jun 2021 | 15:00 | Brazil | Markit Mfg PMI | May | 52.3 | |
1 Jun 2021 | 15:30 | Canada | Markit Mfg PMI SA | May | 57.2 | |
1 Jun 2021 | 15:45 | United States | Markit Mfg PMI Final | May | 61.5 | |
1 Jun 2021 | 16:00 | United States | ISM Manufacturing PMI | May | 60.8 | 60.7 |
1 Jun 2021 | 16:30 | Mexico | Markit Mfg PMI | May | 48.4 | |
2 Jun 2021 | 02:30 | Indonesia | IHS Markit PMI | May | 54.6 | |
2 Jun 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Real GDP QQ SA | Q1 | 3.1% | |
2 Jun 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Real GDP YY SA | Q1 | -1.1% | |
2 Jun 2021 | 14:00 | Brazil | Industrial Output YY | Apr | 10.5% | |
2 Jun 2021 | 15:00 | Mauritius | REPO Rate | Q2 | 1.85% | |
2 Jun 2021 | 23:00 | Chile | Interest Rate | May | 0.50% | |
2 Jun 2021 | Indonesia | Inflation YY | May | 1.42% | ||
3 Jun 2021 | 02:30 | Japan | Services PMI | May | 49.5 | |
3 Jun 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Retail Sales MM Final | Apr | 1.1% | |
3 Jun 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Trade Balance G&S (A$) | Apr | 5,574M | |
3 Jun 2021 | 03:45 | China (Mainland) | Caixin Services PMI | May | 56.3 | |
3 Jun 2021 | 06:15 | Saudi Arabia | IHS Markit Comp PMI | May | 55.2 | |
3 Jun 2021 | 07:00 | India | IHS Markit Svcs PMI | May | 49.0 | 54.0 |
3 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Reserve Assets Total | May | 178,963.97M | |
3 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | Russia | Markit Services PMI | May | 55.2 | |
3 Jun 2021 | 09:00 | Turkey | CPI MM | May | 1.68% | |
3 Jun 2021 | 09:15 | South Africa | Std Bank Whole Econ PMI | May | 53.7 | |
3 Jun 2021 | 09:50 | France | Markit Serv PMI | May | 56.6 | |
3 Jun 2021 | 09:50 | France | Markit Comp PMI | May | 57.0 | |
3 Jun 2021 | 09:55 | Germany | Markit Services PMI | May | 52.8 | |
3 Jun 2021 | 09:55 | Germany | Markit Comp Final PMI | May | 56.2 | |
3 Jun 2021 | 10:00 | Euro Zone | Markit Serv Final PMI | May | 55.1 | |
3 Jun 2021 | 10:00 | Euro Zone | Markit Comp Final PMI | May | 56.9 | |
3 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Initial Jobless Clm | 24 May, w/e | ||
3 Jun 2021 | 15:45 | United States | Markit Comp Final PMI | May | 68.1 | |
3 Jun 2021 | 15:45 | United States | Markit Svcs PMI Final | May | 70.1 | |
3 Jun 2021 | 16:00 | United States | ISM N-Mfg PMI | May | 62.9 | 62.7 |
4 Jun 2021 | 03:00 | Philippines | CPI YY | May | 4.5% | |
4 Jun 2021 | 08:15 | India | Cash Reserve Ratio | 4 Jun | 4.00% | 3.50% |
4 Jun 2021 | 08:15 | India | Repo Rate | 4 Jun | 4.00% | 4.00% |
4 Jun 2021 | 08:15 | India | Reverse Repo Rate | 4 Jun | 3.35% | 3.35% |
4 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Non-Farm Payrolls | May | 621k | 266k |
4 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Unemployment Rate | May | 5.9% | 6.1% |
4 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Average Earnings YY | May | 0.3% | |
4 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | Employment Change | May | -207.1k | |
4 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | Unemployment Rate | May | 8.1% | |
4 Jun 2021 | 15:00 | Brazil | Markit Services PMI | May | 42.9 | |
4 Jun 2021 | 15:00 | Brazil | Markit Composite PMI | May | 44.5 | |
4 Jun 2021 | 16:00 | United States | Factory Orders MM | Apr | 1.1% |
(Refinitiv)
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