Morning Brew May 21 2026

Good morning

US equity markets rallied on Wednesday as oil prices declined amid optimism over a potential US-Iran deal. The S&P 500 rose 1.1% to 7,432.97, the Nasdaq 100 jumped 1.7%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 1.3%. Consumer discretionary stocks led the advance, with travel stocks such as Carnival and Norwegian Cruise Line gaining on reduced geopolitical tensions. Homebuilders rose as Toll Brothers reported better-than-expected results. In after-hours trading, Nvidia delivered a sales forecast that drew a lukewarm reaction from investors despite a continued surge in data center revenue, with the stock down 1.4% in extended trading. Intuit shares sank 11% after hours following third-quarter results and an announcement of 17% workforce cuts.

Asian stocks surged on Thursday as some vessels resumed passage through the Strait of Hormuz, while forecast-beating results at Nvidia and a suspended workers' strike at Samsung Electronics lifted shares of chipmakers.

Overall, Asian shares rose 2.6%, snapping a four-day streak of losses. Korea's KOSPI climbed more than 7%, Taiwanese shares rose 3.5%, and Chinese blue-chips gained 1.1%.

Iran said on Thursday it was reviewing Washington's suggestions on ending the war after U.S. President Donald Trump warned of renewed attacks if it did not agree to a deal.

Yields fell across the board, with the US 10-year back at 4.58%, the UK below 5%, and the EU at 3.09%.

It is very calm with the USD Index at 99.17, EURUSD at 1.1620, Cable at 1.3425, and USDJPY at 158.95.

Gold and silver were strong yesterday but are a little down overnight. Gold is trading between the 50- and 200-day moving averages, and silver is near the supporting ascending trendline.

China continued to build its massive stockpile of crude oil in April, even though imports dropped to the lowest in nearly four years. China's surplus crude amounted to about 430,000 barrels per day in April, as the 20% drop in imports was outweighed by refinery processing sliding to the lowest since August 2022. Crude is 99.06 in the US and 105.75 in the UK.

Ruben commented on the Nvidia numbers:

• Nvidia delivered another very strong quarter, led by demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure.
• Guidance beat expectations, but China and high expectations kept the initial stock reaction restrained.
• The bigger investor question is now duration: how long can this spending cycle stay this strong?

The initial after-market reaction was mildly negative, suggesting investors liked the strength but were already looking beyond the headline beat. That may sound harsh. It is also what happens when a company becomes the unofficial scoreboard for one of the largest investment themes in markets. The earnings question is no longer whether demand is real. It is whether demand can stay this strong for long enough to justify the expectations already in the share price.

Donald Trump is expected to sign an order regarding AI and cybersecurity, possibly today, according to Reuters, as pressure grows from parts of his political base to increase oversight of new AI models, such as Anthropic's Mythos.

Today, the market will be driven by digesting the Nvidia earnings, global PMI, and Walmart earnings. Hopes for peace in Iran and the Strait of Hormuz are high and might cause disappointment 

Thursday, May 21

Japan Trade, Global PMI Nio, Walmart, John Deere, Zoom, Workday,

Friday, May 22 Japan CPI, Germany GDP & IFO, UK Retail Sales, Canada Retail Sales

Monday, May 25