Morning Brew May 21 2024

Good morning,

Friday and over the holiday yesterday we saw interesting moves and are entering a week without Key data releases. Most important event of the week is likely to be the release of Nvidia Earnings tomorrow after the bell.

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq fell yesterday, the Nasdaq hit a new record, The Dow lost 0.5%, the S&P up 0.1%, the Nasdaq rose 0.65%. Several research houses raised their Nvidia price target to well above the 1000 mark, the stock rose to 947. The reason the Dow lost was a rather pessimistic statement by Jamie Dimon stating JPM would not buy back shares at these levels. The stock lost 4.5% and he can reconsider if the bargain is worth it.

This morning the US500 is 5310, the US 30 39800. The USTech100Nas 18665, the GER40 18720 and Japan 225 39025.

 In rates and the Fed outlook, there was a slightly hawkish shift but to be honest, only slightly. The year end rate is seen at -42 BPS from the current level and 10-year rates are at 4.43.

EURUSD is trading at 1.0857, GBPUSD broke the 1.27, USDJOY rose again to 156.40.

Gold and Silver rose massively over the weekend and are not a little off the top at now 2415 and 31.50. Gold hit a new record and Silver is at 13-year highs. Copper traded to an all-time high to 518 cents / lb and is not 506. Bitcoin could exceed 70.000 again, Ethereum soared  on speculation that  the Ether ETF could be approved this week, ETHUSD is at 3640, up 25% this week.

If you are interested in the Chinese measures to support the real estate marke, our Redmond Wong wrote a great analysis on the topic

It is difficult to assess what will be the key driver of sentiment this week, as there are only a few key releases except for the Nvidia earnings and the PMI on Thursday. We are at technically important levels in many assets and instruments . If the optimistic sentiment holds, we can see the bullish trend in stocks and commodities continue but it may well be fickle.

Geopolitics can become the dominant topic after the death of the Iranian President in a helicopter crash and China was rather aggressive in it`s tone towards Taiwan again.

Trade safely!

Tuesday
- Data EU Trade Balance, Canada CPI, Bostic & Barkin speak
- Earnings: Lowe`s, AutoZone

Wednesday
- Data Japan Trade Data, UK CPI, Fed Minutes,  Bostic & Golsbee speak
- Earnings: NVIDIA, Snowflake, Target Corp,

Thursday
- Data International PMI, Turkey Rate Decision US Initial Jobless Claims, EU Consumer
- Earnings: Meituan, Xiaomi Workday
Friday
- Data Japan CPI, DE GDP, UK Retai Sales, US Durable Goods & Michigan Sentiment, Canada Retail Sales
- Earnings: Dollar Tree Inc