Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew May 21 2024

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Good morning,

Friday and over the holiday yesterday we saw interesting moves and are entering a week without Key data releases. Most important event of the week is likely to be the release of Nvidia Earnings tomorrow after the bell.

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq fell yesterday, the Nasdaq hit a new record, The Dow lost 0.5%, the S&P up 0.1%, the Nasdaq rose 0.65%. Several research houses raised their Nvidia price target to well above the 1000 mark, the stock rose to 947. The reason the Dow lost was a rather pessimistic statement by Jamie Dimon stating JPM would not buy back shares at these levels. The stock lost 4.5% and he can reconsider if the bargain is worth it.

This morning the US500 is 5310, the US 30 39800. The USTech100Nas 18665, the GER40 18720 and Japan 225 39025.

 In rates and the Fed outlook, there was a slightly hawkish shift but to be honest, only slightly. The year end rate is seen at -42 BPS from the current level and 10-year rates are at 4.43.

EURUSD is trading at 1.0857, GBPUSD broke the 1.27, USDJOY rose again to 156.40.

Gold and Silver rose massively over the weekend and are not a little off the top at now 2415 and 31.50. Gold hit a new record and Silver is at 13-year highs. Copper traded to an all-time high to 518 cents / lb and is not 506. Bitcoin could exceed 70.000 again, Ethereum soared  on speculation that  the Ether ETF could be approved this week, ETHUSD is at 3640, up 25% this week.

If you are interested in the Chinese measures to support the real estate marke, our Redmond Wong wrote a great analysis on the topic

It is difficult to assess what will be the key driver of sentiment this week, as there are only a few key releases except for the Nvidia earnings and the PMI on Thursday. We are at technically important levels in many assets and instruments . If the optimistic sentiment holds, we can see the bullish trend in stocks and commodities continue but it may well be fickle.

Geopolitics can become the dominant topic after the death of the Iranian President in a helicopter crash and China was rather aggressive in it`s tone towards Taiwan again.

Trade safely!

Tuesday
- Data EU Trade Balance, Canada CPI, Bostic & Barkin speak
- Earnings: Lowe`s, AutoZone

Wednesday
- Data Japan Trade Data, UK CPI, Fed Minutes,  Bostic & Golsbee speak
- Earnings: NVIDIA, Snowflake, Target Corp,

Thursday
- Data International PMI, Turkey Rate Decision US Initial Jobless Claims, EU Consumer
- Earnings: Meituan, Xiaomi Workday
Friday
- Data Japan CPI, DE GDP, UK Retai Sales, US Durable Goods & Michigan Sentiment, Canada Retail Sales
- Earnings: Dollar Tree Inc

 

 

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
The Circle 38
CH-8058
Zürich-Flughafen
Switzerland

Contact Saxo

Select region

Switzerland
Switzerland

All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law. 

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.