Morning Brew May 17 2022
Senior Relationship Manager
It seems markets are becoming a bit more granular again, away from the pre risk on/ risk off.
Technology shares fell yesterday with Telsa loosing 6%, Amazon, Apple and Google down 1% and Twitter caught in the takeover dropped 8% and is trading at a level below when the takeover story started. Energy shares could gain yesterday on hopes of a Chinese recovery and this morning Indexes are higher as Shanghai reported no new Covid cases in three days and hopes of an end to the Lockdown rise.
The Nasdaq fell 1.2% the S&P 500 only 0.4 and the Dow gained 0.08%. Over night, Futures gain app 0.5%.
Gold and Silver recover to 1828 and 21.55 and the USD Index falls to 104.15 with EURUSD at 1.0450 and GBPUSD at 1.2345.
The Turkish Lira fell to 15.62 against the USD, , the ZAR to 16.05.
Rates where fairly calm and Bitcoin is trading at 30k.
While the probability of a 75bps hike in the US has fallen to 13%, the ECP is now seen to hike – not at the June but at the July meeting
Wheat continues to rise with the European contract (EBMc1 for the continuous) up 122% since July 2021. The FAO Food Price Index is at a record high now, at 160 – the Arab spring started when it was at app 130.
Tesla seems to be taking reservations for the Cybertruck only in the United States, Canada and Mexico.
Valneva dropped yesterday on news that the EU was looking to cancel an order for 65mio Doses of the conventional Covid Vaccine due to delays in the approval process.
Today’s key Data is the French GDP at 9:30, the EU GDP at 11:00 and the US Retail sales along with productivity Data at 14:30 and 15:15.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook Q3 2022: The Runaway Train
- Central banks' attempts to kill inflation is a paradigm shift, which could end in a deep recession.
Tangible assets and profitable growth are the winnersWith US equities officially in a bear market, the big question is where and when is the bottom in the current drawdown?
Understanding the lack of investment appetite among oil majorsThe everything rally seen in recent quarters has become more uneven, as its strength is driven by commodities in short supply.
The pressure is on as the wind leaves the sailsWith cryptocurrencies in sharp decline, are we entering a crypto winter or is the bear market a healthy clean-up of the crypto space?
Why the Fed can never catch up and what turns the US dollar lower?Many other central banks are set to eventually outpace the Fed in hiking rates, taking their real interest rates to levels higher than the Fed will achieve.
Bank of Japan: Swimming against the tideThe Japanese economy has gone from the age of deflation to rapidly rising prices in no time, leaving the Bank of Japan in a pickle.
Green transformation detour and bear market hibernationWith the impending risk of global econonomic derailment, we share the five things investors need to consider in this new half year.
Crisis redux for the eurozone?Whether there's going to be a recession in Europe or not, the path towards a stable economy will be agonizing.