Senior Relationship Manager
Good Morning,
It seems markets are becoming a bit more granular again, away from the pre risk on/ risk off.
Technology shares fell yesterday with Telsa loosing 6%, Amazon, Apple and Google down 1% and Twitter caught in the takeover dropped 8% and is trading at a level below when the takeover story started. Energy shares could gain yesterday on hopes of a Chinese recovery and this morning Indexes are higher as Shanghai reported no new Covid cases in three days and hopes of an end to the Lockdown rise.
The Nasdaq fell 1.2% the S&P 500 only 0.4 and the Dow gained 0.08%. Over night, Futures gain app 0.5%.
Gold and Silver recover to 1828 and 21.55 and the USD Index falls to 104.15 with EURUSD at 1.0450 and GBPUSD at 1.2345.
The Turkish Lira fell to 15.62 against the USD, , the ZAR to 16.05.
Rates where fairly calm and Bitcoin is trading at 30k.
While the probability of a 75bps hike in the US has fallen to 13%, the ECP is now seen to hike – not at the June but at the July meeting
Wheat continues to rise with the European contract (EBMc1 for the continuous) up 122% since July 2021. The FAO Food Price Index is at a record high now, at 160 – the Arab spring started when it was at app 130.
Tesla seems to be taking reservations for the Cybertruck only in the United States, Canada and Mexico.
Valneva dropped yesterday on news that the EU was looking to cancel an order for 65mio Doses of the conventional Covid Vaccine due to delays in the approval process.
Today’s key Data is the French GDP at 9:30, the EU GDP at 11:00 and the US Retail sales along with productivity Data at 14:30 and 15:15.
Trade safely.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.