Quarterly Outlook
Upending the global order at blinding speed
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Living on the edge
Good morning,
It was a crazy day yesterday with the tariffs against Mexico Canada and China spooking traders, then rumors appeared that Donlad Trump may consider an exit from Nato during his state of the union address and sparked more nervousness.
It the close, the Dow gave up 1.55%; the S&P 500 -1.2% and the Nasdaq -0.35%. A disappointing outlook by Target and lets their shares fall 3% and 13% , banks took the tariffs particularly bad, the S&P Banking sector loses 5%. Automakers traded lower in the US and internationally as they will be hard hit by tariffs in their whole supply chain. Tesla closed below 200 day moving average and the Nasdaq is looking at correction territory that would be reached if we fall 0.7% more. The Ger40 has traded a range of more than 1000 points this month. Volumes were massive at 18.4 billion shares traded and the Vix remains high.
The Euro Stoxx 50 had just reached the level it traded at during the high in 2000 before it corrected yesterday…
US Yields remained near the 4.20 while those of the EU and UK rose to 2.5% and 4.55%. The US Dollar fell significantly against most currencies: The USD Index fell to 105.55, EURUSD is above 1.06, GBPUSD near 1.28 and USDJPY 149.70. Gold and Silver are higher at 2915 and 32.10.
Bitcoin is trading at 87000, the boost of the US National Crypto reserve is fading.
What do we focus on from here?
It is worth to take a look at options to increase your yield using options for taking profit or entering the market with covered calls or cash protected puts, the high implied volatility raises the premiums.
Trade safely!
Ole took a look at the Gold recovery: Stagflation and geopolitical tensions fuel renewed demand for gold
Key events:
Wednesday, March 5, 2025
Thursday, March 6, 2025
• Canada: Productivity (Q4).
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Friday, March 7, 2025
• U.S.: Employment Report (Feb), Consumer Credit (Jan).
• Canada: Employment Report (Feb), Capacity Utilization (Q4).
• Eurozone: GDP Final (Q4).