Morning Brew March 26 2026

Good Morning

The ongoing conflict in Iran and the uncertain state of negotiations—if any exist—continue to keep markets uneasy. After initial optimism earlier in the week, it has become apparent that aside from President Trump’s statements about negotiations being underway, no tangible progress has been made. Trump noted that the U.S. would respond more forcefully if Iran’s leadership refused to concede, while Iran confirmed it is reviewing the U.S. proposal but clarified that no formal talks are happening.

The main question is when the Strait of Hormuz will fully reopen; ultimately, this will be decisive for the markets.

Yesterday, Ole and John discussed developments in the Middle East and the potential fallout during an insightful webinar: The War in Iran: Navigating Market Uncertainty | Saxo Bank Switzerland

Oil prices rose by approximately $1, reaching 104.30 in the UK and 92.2 in the U.S. Equity markets traded lower, with the US 500 at 6,568, GER40 at 22,755, and Japan 225 at 53,228. Reuters published a special report yesterday estimating that Ukraine has destroyed about 40% of Russia’s export capabilities, further escalating tensions.

Indexes closed higher yesterday as oil prices declined and hopes for a swift resolution increased.

• Meta and Alphabet’s Google were found negligent in designing social media platforms that harm young people, resulting in a $6 million verdict that is expected to set a precedent for many similar cases.
• Robinhood Markets jumped 5% after the trading platform announced a new $1.5 billion share buyback plan.
• Shares of Arm surged 16.4% after unveiling a new AI data center chip. Destiny Tech100 soared 15%, fueled by anticipation of the SpaceX IPO.
• JD.com and Alibaba rose after intervention by the Chinese government to end the price war in food delivery services.
• SuperMicro is being sued by shareholders for neglecting to disclose dependencies on China. 
  
  Yields remain “low,” with U.S. 10-years at 4.35%, UK at 4.83%, and the EU back below 3%, now at 2.95%. The USD Index increased to 99.60. EURUSD stands at 1.1566, USDJPY at 159.30, GBPUSD at 1.3360, and EURCHF at 0.9160. Watch the Bank of Japan for interventions 

Gold and silver pulled back to 4,455 and 70, respectively. 

Charu took a look at the Space X IPO: 

SpaceX IPO may be coming. Here’s why the Space Economy theme is in focus.

• more resilient communications
• better geospatial data and earth observation
• stronger navigation and tracking systems
• greater defense and infrastructure security

I realize I am repeating myself, but markets are currently driven by three key questions alone at the moment :

• When will the war in the Middle East end, and when will the Strait of Hormuz reopen?
• How severe will the impact of the closure be by that time?
• Will we see decisive action and investment in Europe and Asia to reduce dependence on fossil fuels and fragile supply chains?

Thursday, March 26, 2026
Japan PPI, U.S. Initial Jobless Claims,

Friday, March 27, 2026
UK Retail Sales, University of Michigan